CEO樂觀程度對分析師預測誤差之研究 :以美國市場為例

CEO Optimism and Analyst Forecast Bias : Empirical Evidence from the US

呂宗弦(Tsung-Hsien Lu)

指導教授 ： 李彥賢

中原大學/商學院/財務金融研究所/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu201700304

摘要

本研究探討1993至2015年美國企業樂觀CEO之盈餘預測行為對分析師預測誤差的影響，並試圖為分析師找尋降低預測誤差之企業特徵。由於分析師正負向預測誤差存在敏感性不對稱之差異，本研究將正負向預測誤差樣本區隔分析，並透過企業現金股利變動、外部融資、信用評等與CEO性別做為企業釋放資訊的媒介，檢視上述四項變數是否能提升分析師預測能力，降低樂觀CEO所造成的分析師預測誤差。
從實證結果得知，樂觀CEO容易發布偏高盈餘預測，造成分析師預測誤差擴大，其中以分析師負向預測誤差影較為顯著。而在透過現金股利變動、負債融資、信用評等與CEO性別之企業特徵，分析師能夠改善樂觀CEO所造成的預測誤差，且以分析師負向預測誤差影響效果較為顯著。

關鍵字

分析師預測、樂觀CEO、分析師預測誤差敏感性

並列摘要

This study examines the impact of optimistic CEOs’earnings predictions on analysts’ forecast bias in the United States from 1993 to 2015; the study also attempts to find the characteristics of firms exhibiting reductions in forecast bias. This study uses the definition of analyst forecast bias in Wong and Zang (2014) and that of optimistic CEO proxy variables in Jenner et al. (2016) and employs the I/B/E/S and Compustat databases to establish the main research objectives. Following Steve and Williams (2001), who revealed the presence of asymmetry sensitivity between analysts’ positive and negative forecast bias, we analyze the positive and negative forecast error sample. By using cash dividend changes, external financing, credit rating, and CEO gender as media for corporate release information, we examine whether these four variables can improve analysts’ ability to predict and reduce the analyst forecast bias caused by optimistic CEOs. The empirical findings show that more optimistic CEOs are more likely to release higher earnings forecasts, resulting in an increase in analyst forecast bias. Furthermore, this effect occurs more significantly in relation to analysts’ negative forecast bias. Analysts can reduce the forecast bias caused by optimistic CEOs by receiving corporate information from cash dividend changes, debt financing, credit ratings, and CEO gender. This effect is more significant in relation to the analysts’ negative forecast bias.

並列關鍵字

analyst forecast、CEO optimism、analysts forecast bias sensitivity.

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