債務法則與社會福利：小型開放經濟的內生成長模型

Debt Rules and Social Welfare in an Endogenously Growing Open Economy

王大弘(Da-Hong Wang)

指導教授 ： 賴景昌

國立臺北大學/社會科學學院/經濟學系/碩士(2013年)

摘要

本文依據Turnovsky (1996)的模型架構為基礎，試圖建立一個具有生產性政府支出、消費性政府支出及公共債務的小型開放經濟內生成長模型。模型中將消費者效用函數設定為CES效用函數，藉以刻畫私有消費與政府消費之間的替代呈度在分析中所扮演的角色。在經濟體系靜止均衡下，分別探討債劵黃金法則與固定赤字法則對經濟成長率與社會福利的影響，並且根據分析結果給予政策建議。
研究顯示，在債劵黃金法則之下，提高公共赤字融通程度可使公共資本累積進而提升生產力，故政府採取債劵黃金法則赤字融通可以提高國內經濟成長率；然而，在固定赤字法則之下，提高國內赤字-所得比並不會對生產力造成任何影響，故政府採取固定赤字法則赤字融通不會對國內經濟成長率造成任何影響。社會福利分析方面，我們透過數值模擬指出，當替代彈性高於一定水準時，債劵黃金法則之下的福利水準會優於固定赤字法則之下的福利水準；反之，當替代彈性低於一定水準時，固定赤字法則之下的福利水準會優於債劵黃金法則之下的福利水準。

關鍵字

債務法則 ； 內生成長 ； 小型開放經濟 ； 當期替代彈性

並列摘要

Building upon the work of Turnovsky (1996), this thesis constructs a small-open endogenous growth model featured with productive public capital, government consumption, and alternative debt rule. By using a constant elasticity substitution utility function to describe the degree of substitutability between private consumption and government consumption, we investigate the growth and welfare effects under two different debt rules. In addition, based on our analytical results we provide some policy implications.
Several main findings emerge from the analysis. First, under the regime of the golden rule of public finance, a rise in the extent of deficit financed public investment is beneficial to the economic growth rate. Second, under the regime of fixed deficit, a rise in the deficit-income ratio dose not affect the economic growth rate. Third, by means of numerical simulation, we find that the welfare level under the golden rule of public finance is higher than that under the fixed deficit rule if the intra-temporal elasticity of substitution is relatively high. on the contrary, the welfare level under fixed deficit regime is higher than that under the golden rule of public finance if the intra-temporal elasticity of substitution is relatively low.

並列關鍵字

Debt Rules ； Endogenous Growth ； Small Open Economy ； Intra-temporal Elasticity of Substitution

參考文獻

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