台灣電力部門因應CO2減量之新增機組決策模型研究-多目標規劃之應用

Supply Planning and CO2 Reduction for Electricity Sector in Taiwan-An Application Multiple Objective Decision of Making Model

潘柔雅(Rou-Ya Pan)

指導教授 ： 張四立

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2009年)

摘要

隨著工業活動的頻繁及生產力的提高，促使能源需求大增，進而大量使用化石燃料，造成環境損害。而經過科學之證實，化石燃料在燃燒的過程中確實會排放溫室氣體，造成全球暖化，而此氣候之議題也引起了國際上之關注，並於1997年簽署京都議定書以抑制溫室氣體的排放。然而溫室氣體中乃以二氧化碳之排放量為大宗，並根據WEO(World Energy Outlook 2006)報告顯示，電力部門同時也是二氧化碳排放量最高之部門，因此各國在面臨溫室氣體減量壓力時，如何進行適當之電力供給規劃，即成為各國目前所需面臨之課題。
而我國之電力部門如同各國所面臨之問題，在電力需求增加之際同時也須考量二氧化碳的排放而規劃適當之電力供給；但我國之電力系統不同於其他國家一樣擁有豐富的能源，因此在進行電力供給規劃上更顯困難。爰此，本研究將應用多目標規劃法建置電力供給規劃模型，針對低碳能源、CO2減量及綜合發展等三大議題設計情境，且在低碳能源議題中再分為兩個子議題，分別為核能發展及再生能源發展，共計七項政策情境，並以電力之總發電成本極小化與二氧化碳排放極小化為兩大目標進行分析及情境模擬，進而規劃出符合實際面之電力供給模型，以供決策者制定之参考。
其研究結果如下所示：
(1)核能發展情境
根據情境模擬結果顯示，當減少核能機組時，燃煤汽力機與燃氣複循環將會進入電力系統以填補減少的發電量。因此在發電成本目標上，將會增加發電成本。而當核能機組未來不再擴增時，則在CO2排放目標上，則會增加CO2排放量，此結果顯示出核能確實具有減量之效益。
(2)再生能源情境
根據結果顯示，當大幅增加再生能源裝置容量時，其發電成本有增加之趨勢；而在CO2排放目標上，可以明顯看出再生能源具有減量效益，但若再生能源擴增幅度過小，則減量效益將會降低。
(3)CO2減量情境
在發電成本目標中顯示，當CO2排放量限制目標不同時，其成本也會不同。若CO2排放量限制愈嚴格時，則發電成本會愈高，主要燃氣機組將會進入電力系統，並使用變動成本高的天然氣作為發電燃料，故整體而言，加嚴之CO2排放量限制目標的發電成本會較高。
(4)綜合發展
根據情境模擬結果顯示，當再生能源與核能機組發展受限時，則須依靠燃氣機組來協助降低CO2排放量，但相對地發電成本也會隨之上升。因此在面對加嚴之CO2排放量限制時，則須搭配核能機組，才能降低燃氣機組的大幅增加，並減少燃氣機組所帶來的高變動成本。

關鍵字

全球暖化 ； 溫室氣體減量 ； 二氧化碳 ； 多目標規劃 ； 電力供給規劃

並列摘要

As the industrial activities become more frequent alone with the improvement of productivity, the energy demand was thus increased tremendously. The fossil fuels were being consumed in large quantities as a consequence and caused environmental damage. It has been scientifically proven that the fossil fuel does give off greenhouse gas during combustion and causes global warming that aroused international concern; therefore, the Kyoto protocol was signed in 1997 to regulate the emission of greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases composed mainly of carbon dioxide and according to WEO (World Energy Outlook 2006), the electricity sector has the highest carbon dioxide emission. An appropriate electricity supply planning is a problem that, for the time being, every country has to deal with.
Taiwan’s electricity sector was facing is the same as what other countries were confronting. As the electricity demand increases, the emission of carbon dioxide should be taken into consideration at the same time when drawing up applicable electricity supply planning. However, Taiwan’s energy resources is not as abundant as other countries, and as a consequence, we encounter more difficulties in electricity supply planning. In this study, the multi-objective planning method was applied in constructing the electricity supply planning model and scenarios were designed based on the three major topics, namely: low-carbon energy, CO2 reduction, and comprehensive development, with the low-carbon energy topic being further divided into two sub topics, namely: nuclear energy development and renewable energy development. The total seven policy scenarios were analysis and simulated to provide reference for decision makers in developing electricity supply model that conform to the reality as well as achieve the goal of minimizing total electricity generation cost and carbon dioxide emission.
The results show as followings：
(1)The nuclear energy scenarios：
According to the result of scenario simulation, coal-fired steam turbine and gas-fired combined cycle would be introduced into the electricity system to make up the reduced amount of electricity generated when nuclear were cut back. Therefore, in regard to power generation cost goal, the cost would be increased. On the other hand, from the aspect of carbon dioxide emission, the amount would increase if nuclear were not increased. The result showed that nuclear did have reduction benefits.
(2)The renewable energy scenarios：
According to the result, the power generation cost had the tendency of increasing when renewable energy had a substantial increase. As to the carbon dioxide emission goal, the renewable energy obviously had benefits in reducing emission. However, the reduction benefits would drop if the margin of increase of such renewable energy was too small.
(3)CO2 reduction scenarios：
It is shown in power generation cost goal that as the restriction goal of CO2 emission varies, the cost would also vary. Moreover, as the restriction became stricter, the cost of power generation would increase since the gas-fired units would be introduced into the electricity system. Consequently, the fuel choice would be shifted to the natural gas, which had higher variable coast. As a whole, the stricter carbon dioxide emission restriction goal leads to higher power generation cost.
(4)Comprehensive development scenarios：
The results of scenario simulation showed that gas-fired unit was needed to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide emission when renewable energy and nuclear energy development were restricted. Accordingly, the power generation cost rise. Therefore, in order to prevent the increase of gas-fired units and to cut down the high variable cost caused by it, when carbon dioxide emission limitation got stricter, the nuclear must be employed.

並列關鍵字

global warming ； climate change ； carbon dioxide reduction ； multi-objective planning ； electricity supply planning

參考文獻

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