論文旨在分析影響續集電影票房績效的因素,由於續集電影是近幾年來竄紅的議題,不論是作為前集電影產品延伸或是訊號的傳遞,續集電影相較於市場上其他電影一直都有著自己獨特的競爭優勢。我們以普通最小平方法與分量迴歸法,來分析電影相關變數與續集票房之間的相互關係,並使用個人消費支出平減指數來計算實質票房,避免通貨膨脹對票房的影響,以訊號理論為假說基礎,探討續集電影的一致性是否會受到前集電影的導演、編劇、主要演員等傳遞電影製作團隊的熟悉度而影響票房,以及消費者是否會受到前集電影的口碑與評價發揮信號作用,影響對續集電影票房的關係。 結果發現:演員一致性越高能夠提升續集電影票房;導演一致性則是在高票房時,才能夠正向影響票房。在口碑評分中,前集觀眾評分越高能夠提升消費者進場觀看續集電影的意願,但前集影評的評分高低則是對續集票房沒有影響。而在前集觀眾口碑叫好的情況下,導演的一致性越高,對於續集票房的正向影響更為明顯。而演員的一致性越高,不論在前集電影觀眾或影評口碑叫好的情況下,對於續集電影票房都有正向調節的效果。此外,我們也發現「前集有得奧斯卡獎或被提名一項以上」、「PG分級」、「PG-13分級」、「總放映廳數越多」、「暑期上映期間」等因素會正向影響續集電影票房。
This thesis aims to explore the major determinants of box office sales for sequel movies. The analysis applies both multivariate and quantile regression methods to study the interrelations between sequel movie box office and movie related variables. To adjust the movie ticket price inflation, we use personal consumption deflator to deflate nominal box office. This research focuses on discovering consistency of sequel toward normal movies, and consider whether customers are affected by the signals released from the original movie. A total of 385 sequel movies are used in the analyses. By using a quantile regression technique, the results indicate the MPAA rating, number of screens and release date have a very significant positive impact on the sequel movie box office performance. In addition, the consistency of castings and directors do affect box office positively which can only be an extra advantage of sequel movies; moreover, this relationship will be stronger when the original movie had a good rating or word of mouth which made by audiences. A quantile regression analysis uncovers that the consistency of director has a remarkably positive influence on the high quantile of the sequel movie box office.