美國經濟指標藉由國際供應鏈影響台灣海運公司營收之研究：以A海運公司為例

American Economic Indicator Influence Taiwan Shipping Corporation’s Revenue by International Supply Chain : A Case Study of A Marine Transport Corporation

張景博(Ching-Po Chang)

指導教授 ： 張舜德

國立臺北大學/商學院/企業管理學系/碩士(2009年)

摘要

台灣屬於海島型經濟體，自然資源貧乏，亦無廣大的內需市場。因此經濟成長必須仰賴國際貿易，將各種原物料進口之後，再加工成產品販售至世界各地。而貨物的進出口又以海運為大宗，可見海運業的重要性。在國際供應鏈當中，海運連結了不同國家與區域的供應鏈，而經濟景氣又與供應鏈的表現息息相關，因此本研究欲以海運公司、國際供應鏈與經濟指標之間可能的關聯作一探討。
本研究以文獻探討歸納出跨國供應鏈的型態，並選擇A、B二間公司進行個案研究。研究範圍則以美西航線為主，經濟指標的部分則以國內生產毛額(GDP)、工業生產指數(IPI)、消費者物價指數(CPI)、生產者物價指數(PPI)、聯邦基金利率(Fed Rate)和新屋開工率(Housing Starts)為代表。
研究結果歸納為下列三點：
一、海運公司美西線營收與GDP、IPI、CPI、PPI、Fed Rate和Housing Starts均具有正向的關係。其中Fed Rate與Housing Starts為領先指標。
二、國際供應鏈製造商對美國銷貨金額與GDP、IPI、CPI、PPI、Fed Rate和Housing Starts均具有正向的關係。其中Fed Rate與Housing Starts為領先指標。
三、海運公司美西線營收與國際供應鏈製造商對美國銷貨金額具有正向的關係。

關鍵字

供應鏈管理 ； 海運產業 ； 經濟指標 ； 產業研究

並列摘要

Taiwan is an island economy, which lacks natural resources, nor big domestic market. Taiwan’s economic growth must rely on international trade, import of various raw materials, and then processed into products sold to all over the world. The import and export of goods used for the bulk shipping, so marine industry is very important. In the international supply chain, shipping links with different national and regional supply chan. The performance of supply chain and economy indicators are closely related, so this study sought to shipping companies, international supply chain and the economy indicators may be a link to explore.
In this study, a literature review conclude to the pattern of international supply chain, and choose A & B to carry out two case studies. The scope of the study are mainly the Asia - U.S. west coast route. Economy indicators choose gross domestic product, industrial production index, consumer price index, producer price index, the federal funds rate and housing starts.
The research results summarize in the following three points:
1. The shipping company’s Asia - U.S. west coast route revenue and gross domestic product, industrial production index, consumer price index, producer price index, the federal funds rate and housing starts have a positive relationship. The federal funds rate and the housing starts are leading indicators.
2. International supply chain manufactures sales to U.S. and gross domestic product, industrial production index, consumer price index, producer price index, the federal funds rate and housing starts have a positive relationship. The federal funds rate and the housing starts are leading indicators.
3. The shipping company’s Asia - U.S. west coast route revenue and international supply chain manufactures sales to U.S. have a positive relationship.

並列關鍵字

supply chain management ； shipping industry ； economic indicator ； industry research

參考文獻

古柏、辛德勒(2008)，九版，企業研究方法(楊雪蘭、宋兆賢譯)，台北市，華泰文化事業股份有限公司，(原著出版年：2006)。

林光(1999)，四版，海運學，台北市，華泰文化事業股份有限公司。

楊麗芬、許玉雪(2005)，「臺灣地區消費者物價指數－單變量與多變量時間數列模式之分析比較」，中國統計學報，43卷3期：頁281-311。

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2009). May, 2009, from http://www.federalreserve.gov/.

David, B. & Marija, B. (2007). Measuring the Supply Chain Risk and Vulnerability in Frequency Space. Int. J. Production Economics, 108, 291-301.