奢侈稅實施對不動產相關產業股價報酬之衝擊

THE IMPACT ON STOCK PRICE BY LUXURY TAX- EVIDENCE FROM TAIWAN REAL ESTATE INDUTRY

潘俊義(PAN, CHUN I)

指導教授 ： 林靖 ； 李孟峰

國立臺北大學/商學院/國際財務金融碩士在職專班/碩士(2013年)

摘要

我國財政部為遏止國內短期炒作房市的投機行為，將房市導向長期投資，避免房價處於不合理
上漲，因此於2011 年4 月15 日立法院三讀通過「特種貨物及勞務稅條例」，一般俗稱奢侈稅，並於
同年6 月1 日開始實施，本研究為了解奢侈稅的實施對不動產相關產業股價之衝擊，將不動產相關
產業分成四類，即建築工程、不動產開發、工程服務業以及不動產經紀業，並以事件研究法研究各
類股價受奢侈稅實施之影響程度。
本研究以立院三讀通過宣告日及實施日為兩事件日，因兩事件日相隔僅45 天，故取兩事件日前
30 天及後10 天作為事件窗口；研究結果顯示政府為打壓過高房價而實施的奢侈稅政策，就兩事件
日期間股價影響，整體而言，雖於宣告日前股價有壓抑情形，但宣告日後即有利空出盡的態勢出現，
開始實施後更出現補漲行情；股價是未來的先行指標，反應出市場對未來不動產相關產業仍具信心。
四類中以不動產開發業及不動產經紀業受奢侈稅影響程度較大，推斷為開發業持有土地較多，交易
的成本將提高，經紀業預估成交量將減少，影響服務費收入有關。
此研究結果與開始實施後兩年期間即2011 年6 月至2013 年5 月，實際上我國各地房價並未如
預期有效降低有相呼應之處，奢侈稅的實施只對少數投資人有短期影響，股價的漲跌可能還是得回
歸去看公司的基本面。本篇論文並就研究結果及現階段不動產產業發展情況，以政府、銀行及投資
者三個層面提出建議。

關鍵字

事件研究法 ； 不動產 ； 股價

並列摘要

The Ministry of Finance of republic of China considers that impose the luxury tax
can lead the house price to a long-term investment and in order to avoid the souring
up of house price. Since that the Legislative Yuan of republic of China pass the luxury
tax act and will be imposed in 2011 June 1. In order to realize the impact from luxury
tax to the stock price of real estate related industry, we divide companies into 4
species, such as civil engineering companies, real estate development companies,
engineering service companies and real estate broker companies. And we conduct an
event study to investigate the impact from luxury tax.
We take the luxury tax act passed and imposed day as two events. Since the interval
was only 45 days, we use the 30 days before events and 10 days after events as events
window. We find out that the stock price in this industry get down on pronounce day
but after that the stock price will get back to its original level. It reflects investor still
confident in this industry. And real estate development companies and real estate
broker companies were influenced more. And we suspect that is because the real
estate development companies hold a lot of lands, and the transaction cost will be
higher. And the commission of real estate broker companies will decrease.
In fact, after the luxury tax was imposed. The house price didn’t going down
significantly. The luxury tax only affects few investors in a short term. The stock price
going up or down may cause by the fundament of companies. This research provides
some advices to government, banks and investors according to our results.

並列關鍵字

event study ； real estate ； stock price

參考文獻

6. 陳化明(2011)，「復徵「空地稅」政策對營建業股價影響之研究」，淡江大學

12. 邱名宏(2012)，「奢侈稅對相關上市公司之衝擊」，臺灣大學國際企業學研究

13. 黃雅玲(2004)，「土地增值稅減半徵收延長一年對營建業股票報酬率之影響」，

2. 汪瑞芝、陳明進與林世銘(2005)，「土地增值稅減半政策之事件研究」，證券

4. 林柏伸(2012)，「我國課徵奢侈稅對不動產價格與成交量之影響-以台北市為