臺灣綠色成長指標建置之研究-以修正型層級分析法為例

Green Growth Indicator Establishment in Taiwan-Applying M-AHP Methodology

周軒軒(Hsuan-Hsuan Chou)

指導教授 ： 李堅明

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/自然資源與環境管理研究所/碩士(2014年)

摘要

由於綠色成長的重要性逐漸提升，2011年經濟合作與發展組織 (OECD)提出綠色成長監測系統來減緩與調適全球暖化的衝擊。雖然台灣已經建置永續發展策略綱領，然而OECD 綠色成長指標更為實際與完整。綠色成長不只強調「綠色」，也著重「經濟發展」。本研究以李堅明、陳召宜(2014)之研究為基礎，重新檢視台灣綠色成長指標。OECD於2011年提供建置指標十大步驟，而本研究採用OECD在第六步驟所提出的「權重加總」方式—層級分析法，藉由專家學者給予台灣綠色成長指標權重，找出專家學者們最為重視的綠色成長面向和指標。此外，以傳統的層級分析法、主成分分析法與等權重之權重進行比較以檢視台灣綠色成長。然而，層級分析法有其缺點，本研究針對其中一限制，也就是「專家主觀性」來進行改善，因此引進「修正型層級分析法」(Modified-AHP) (Nefeslioglu et al., 2013)，並利用M-AHP來計算出一般指標難以呈現的解釋力。經本研究之計算，台灣綠色成長指標解釋力為23%，由23%之解釋力提供政策決策者，邁向綠色成長的參考。

關鍵字

修正型層級分析法 ； 綠色成長指標 ； 解釋力

並列摘要

Owing to the importance of green growth, OECD (2011) proposed green growth monitoring system to mitigate and adapt global warming impact. Although Taiwan has established sustainable development principles, OECD green growth indicators is more practicable and complete, for it’s not only emphasized “green”, but also emphasis on “growth”. This research plans to re-examine Taiwan green growth indicators on the basis of Lee & Chen (2014). For investigating experts’ importance on four dimensions of green growth indicator, the weights are given by experts and calculated by Analytic Hierarchy Process. Furthermore, combined the results of traditional AHP, PCA and EW examine Taiwan green growth. However, AHP has its limitations; this study introduces Nefeslioglu et al. (2013) M-AHP (Modified-AHP) system to improve experts’ subjectivity problem and calculated the 23% explanatory power, providing a clear reference for achieving green growth goal to policy-makers.

並列關鍵字

Modified-Analytic Hierarchy Process ； Green Growth Indicator ； Explanatory Power

參考文獻

Dobbie. M. J. and D. Dail, 2012, “Robustness and sensitivity of weighting and aggregation in constructing composite indices,” Ecological Indicators 29. 270-277.

Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear safety (BMU), 2013, Renewable Energy Sources in Figures, Germany: BMU Publishing.

International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 2014, “REmap 2030-A Renewable Energy Roadmap,” Germany: IRENA Publishing.

J. A Mathews, 2012, “Green growth strategies—Korean initiatives,” Future 44. 716-769.

Jänicke. M., 2012, “Green growth”: From a growing eco-industry to economic sustainability, Energy Policy 48. 13-21.