兩岸航線中轉市場之研究─以台北-洛杉磯航線為例

Investigating the market potential of transfer passengers on cross-strait flights:The case of Taipei-Los Angeles route

黃光浩(Kuang-Hao Huang)

指導教授 ： 汪進財 ； 蕭傑諭

國立交通大學/管理學院/管理學院運輸物流學程/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6842/NCTU.2015.00365

摘要

中國大陸自近年經濟成長率躍居全球之冠，航空運輸市場需求急遽，已成為全球主要旅運消費市場之一，擁有龐大的商務及國際旅運市場客源。兩岸航班自2003年1月由台灣執行首班上海單向春節包機，迄今已逾12年，現階段兩岸因政治因素，大陸居民尚無法經由臺灣轉機前往其他國家，開放「陸客中轉」一直是台灣航空業界關心的議題，如台灣桃園機場能成為中國大陸旅客選擇轉機地點選項，除對我國籍航空業者帶來利多，亦能增進台灣桃園機場的旅運量，有助我發展成為區域航空轉運中心。

本研究以2010年5月至2014年11月間中國大陸各機場前往美國洛杉磯旅運量及票價資料為基礎，彙整期間內主要轉運機場中介於中國大陸市場與美國洛杉磯之間航班頻次、飛行時間、距離等影響因素，應用總體羅吉特模式，以校估中國大陸市場經由各轉運機場前往美國洛杉磯市佔率分配情形，並推測2016年開放陸客來臺中轉後，台灣桃園機場可能獲得之市佔率及運量預估。

研究結果可提供國籍航空業者掌握大陸市場脈動資訊、預擬航班規劃，並作為新航點開發及既有航線增班之參考；就機場公司而言，可及早因應未來旅運量成長變化，藉此規劃機場各項設施的容量，以提升機場運作效能及國際競爭力。

關鍵字

陸客中轉 ； 市佔率分配 ； 選擇行為 ； 羅吉特模式

並列摘要

Due to the economy of Mainland China grows rapidly in recent years, the demand of air transportation in China has become one of the main markets in the world. After the first cross-strait charter flight executed from Taiwan to Shanghai in January 2003, it has passed more than 12 years, however, due to the political issues between the two sides, mainland Chinese residents are still unable to have a transit flight via Taiwan to the other destinations. Cross-strait flights opening for mainland Chinese transferring via Taiwan has been a main topic of interest to the aviation industry in Taiwan. Once Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport becomes a transit airport option to mainland Chinese travelers, it will be expected to bring a large amount of passengers making stopover flights via Taiwan, which would not only increase the traffic volume but also help Taiwan develop into a regional air transportation hub.

This research is to develop an airport-pair demand model and applies it to the air transportation system between major origins of China to Los Angeles of the United Sates. By incorporating the airport pair data of fare, traffic volumes, flight frequencies, block time, distance, minimum connection time and other considerable factors from May 2010 to November 2014, this research is based on aggregate Logit Model to forecast the market share allocations of each transit hubs of mainland Chinese travelers’ choice of routes to Los Angeles. The study also estimates the traffic volume and the market share of mainland Chinese passengers transferring via Taiwan Taoyuan International airport under the assumption of the limitation will be relieved by 2016.

The results would provide references to the aviation industry of Taiwan to estimate the market potential of mainland Chinese passengers transiting via Taiwan. For airline companies, the study illustrates the potential markets in China, which would be also helpful for long term fleet planning and expansions. For the airport company, the study brings a point of view to airport operations to response to the changes of future traffic growth, as well as the airport capacity and facility planning, so as to enhance the airport operation efficiency and competitiveness.

並列關鍵字

Cross-strait flights ； Logit Model ； Discrete choice model ； Market share estimation

參考文獻

郭仲偉（2008），「以二元羅吉特模式探討大型航空樞紐城市於空間與時間可移轉性之研究」，中國土木水利工程學刊，Vol.20 No.2，第241-256頁。

溫裕弘、邱鈺雯（2002），「都會區雙機場之市區機場對飛航線市場涵蓋範圍分析－以松山機場為例」，中華民國運輸學會101 年學術 論文研討會。

汪進財、賈晉華（2012），「由航空網路觀點分析亞太地區機場競爭」，中華民國運輸學會 101 年年會暨學術論文研討會。

林東慶（2007），以灰色理論和類神經網路預測航空客貨運量之變化，國立成功大學民航研究所碩士論文。

張原賓（2007），以類神經網路模型預測航空旅客運量，國立成功大學民用航空所碩士論文。