原物料價格波動下的採購下單模式建立－以銅金屬採購為例

The creation of Procurement model under the raw material cost fluctuations－a case of copper procurement

李燕蘋(Yen-ping Lee)

指導教授 ： 沈國基

國立中央大學/管理學院/工業管理研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2012年)

摘要

目前在工業上應用最多的基本金屬就是銅，使用領域也以台灣主流的電子電機產業上為多，而國際銅價因為新興國家的經濟建設高度成長，刺激需求大幅增加，或是基金套利哄抬價格，造成價格不斷的持續上漲，但隨時又因經濟景氣問題而快速崩盤，例如， 2008年三月均價為8,439美元/噸，但同年九月遇到全球性的金融海嘯於十二月跌破3,000美元/噸；2011年八月三十一日收盤9,100.5美元/噸，但九月二十八日收盤又因歐債危機與大陸需求疲弱而跌破6,975美元/噸，一個月內的上下幅度將近30%，造成企業在採購原料時價格誤判的成本風險。
個案公司針對其最重要的原物料－銅金屬，進行採購流程檢視，了解公司原有流程的問題點，分析發生原因，針對問題提出改善對策，詳細研究國際銅價的影響因素後，利用LME現貨價、LME庫存、黃金價格、石油價格、美國工業生產指數與銅價的正反關係，建立了銅金屬的採購模式，並透過實際驗證，得知：價格起伏明顯有上漲或下跌時，下單模型效益會較顯著。例如國際銅價下跌時，以現貨價格購買的材料價格會較好，可以增加下單數量或訂定合約，使用15日均價的就必須靠廢料的數量來換取平均價格的時間；反之，當銅金屬上漲態勢明顯時，15日均價的價格就相對便宜，可以增加下單數量與訂定合約，現貨價格報價的材料就要能盡量在起漲前下單，或是分散時間與增加下單次數來分散風險。
採購人員透過相關指標的收集過程，了解國際經濟情勢的現況，提供銅價變化判斷的依據，加上採購模式的運用，個案公司整體的採購成本降低2.79%，降低銅價變動的成本風險，增加企業的獲利能力，並且提供相關產業採購銅料的決策參考。

關鍵字

採購模式 ； 銅金屬 ； 原物料採購

並列摘要

Copper is used in many industrial applications. Due to the strong growth of the economic development in the emerging markets, the demand for copper was continuously increasing and this was driving up the price. Then due to the worldwide financial crisis the copper price came under pressure. For example in March 2008 the average price for cooper was at $8,439 per ton, only 9 months later the price dropped to $3,000 per ton. This is a simple example of how important it is to have a good procurement process in place.
The case company analysis the problems of current procurement process and proposes improvement by: Understanding the influencing factors for the copper price by identifying five major influencing factors. These are the London Metal Exchange (LME) price, LME stocks, gold price, oil price and the U.S. industrial production index (IPI). Each of these five factors can have a significant influence on the copper price, we use their positive or negative relationship with copper price, to establish the purchasing model of copper.
According to the study, the purchasing model will be very effective when the copper price fluctuates significantly, once the price starts to decline, the spot price will be more favorable, Then it is time to increase the purchasing volume or create a contract with long-term price fixing and it is recommended to use more scrap metal when applying the 15-days average price to wait for a better copper price .On the contrary, once the price is increasing, the 15-days average price is relatively low, then the spot price order has to be sent before the potential rise of the copper price or increase the order frequency to reduce the risks.
The purchasers learn about the international economic development by monitoring the five influencing factors which are the base to judge the future trend of the copper price. The procurement costs of the case company dropped 2.79% by using the purchase model which has been applied for this study. This procurement process does not only improve the profitability of the case company, it may be a general procurement process for most of the related industrial businesses.

並列關鍵字

raw material cost fluctuations ； procurement model ； copper

參考文獻

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﹝1﹞ Valencia , Clandio A, ”An Econometric Study of The World Copper Industry”, Colorado School of Mines , Ph.D , 2005.

﹝2﹞ Vail , Joaquin R , “ An Econometric Study of The World Copper Market ” , University of Pennsylvania , Ph.D ,1988.