陸客自由行對臺灣國家安全之影響

Assessing the Impacts of Free Independent Travel of Mainland China on ROC’s National Security

林俊宏(Chun-Hong Lin)

指導教授 ： 林泰和

國立中正大學/社會科學院/戰略暨國際事務研究所/碩士(2014年)

摘要

一、兩岸開放民間交流，最早可溯自1987年我國開放赴陸探親，惟此一開放措施仍嚴格限制大陸民眾來臺旅遊，不僅造成大陸民眾對臺認知受限，也使臺灣旅遊產業長期低迷失衡。
二、2002年，扁政府首度提出「開放大陸觀光客」政策，惟大陸對陸客來臺政策仍採消極的抵制態度，直到2005年連戰先生赴大陸「和平之旅」，才逐步邁向正常化；2008年國民黨重新執政，大陸大幅推動兩岸經貿正常化政策。
三、據统計，從2003到2013年6月間，陸客來臺觀光入境人數大抵在299萬人以下（2012年為期間內最高年份，有197萬3千餘人），平均每日來臺觀光人數約5000人，對臺灣的產業助益，不僅創造產值，帶動內需，也提供更多工作機會。
近年來我國政府秉持「先易後難、先經後政、先急後緩」之原則，積極建構和平互信、穩定發展的兩岸關係。然而伴隨雙方交流日漸熱絡，國人在敵情觀念與國家安全警覺上，卻逐漸淡薄且弱化。
環顧當前我國面臨最大的安全威脅來自中國大陸，殷鑑近年肇生多起共諜滲透案件，顯見大陸正積極以多管道、多面相方式對我滲透蒐情，嚴重影響國家整體安全。因此，面對多元的滲透蒐情手段，如何建立國人正確保密防諜認知，熟捻保密作為，並秉持「魔鬼藏在細節中」、「共諜就在你身邊」的安全警覺，有效杜絕共諜滲透蒐情，確保國家安全與利益，實為當前重要之課題。
另兩岸分隔60年，短期內無法消弭兩岸統獨意識型態爭議；我國國、民兩黨政權板塊消長，是否影響大陸對於兩岸政策態度，及未來可能效應，都有值得玩味探討之處。

關鍵字

自由行 ； 國家安全

並列摘要

In 1987, the ROC government adopted a new policy that allowed residents of Taiwan to visit family in Mainland China; however, the policy was not mutual due to severe limitations posed by Taiwanese government in Mainland Chinese travel to the island. This imbalance not only kept the mainlanders from gaining further insight into Taiwan, but also depressed Taiwanese tourism market. China remained passive toward the policy issued by the then DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) government in 2002, which allowed mainland tourists to visit Taiwan, but not until Lien Chan, Honorary Chairman of the KMT (Kuomintang), made his trip to Mainland China in 2005 and push forward normalization of tourism business of both sides. With the inauguration of President Ma Ying-jeou in May 2008, cross-strait economic relations have been heating up. Statistic shows that nearly 3 million Mainland Chinese came to Taiwan from 2003 to June 2013, nearly 5,000 per day. Taiwan’s production value has been raised, domestic demand expanded, job opportunities created as well.
However, China is always a threat to Taiwan. While giving carrots, PRC spares no efforts in showing sticks--conducting intelligence activities island-wide and thus lessens the awareness of Taiwanese people in the sense of national security by sending more people and money in Taiwan. In Chinese espionage cases uncovered in Taiwan these years, we see some of them were conducted by means of FIT, which means China is penetrating Taiwan sneakily with all kind of methods and threating Taiwan’s security anytime and anywhere. Therefore, keeping alert and being aware of suspicious people nearby is everyone’s responsibility in this island.
Last but not least, the author tries to probe into some interesting questions, such as if China’s Taiwan policy would be altered by political tug-of-war between KMT and DPP? What are the future tendencies? Would interaction among parties, namely, CCP, KMT and DPP, have impacts on Taiwanese people on determining his/her unification-independence preference? Hoping the theories would be of help in analyzing and predicting the future trend.

並列關鍵字

Free Independent Travel ； National Security

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