少子化對觀光遊樂業遊客人數影響預測分析

The Prediction Analysis of the Impact of the Declining Birth Rate on the Tourist Population

王益初(Yih-Chu Wang)

指導教授 ： 陳宗玄

朝陽科技大學/管理學院/休閒事業管理系/碩士(2011年)

摘要

遊樂園是觀光遊樂業的一個重要事業。遊樂園可以帶動觀光相關產業活絡地方經濟，諸如交通、餐飲、旅宿業都會受到連帶影響。國內觀光遊樂業曾經有輝煌榮景，如今隨著新的遊樂園業者家加入，遊客人數卻不增反減。政府部門調查研究顯示遊樂園主要客群是「青少年」與「青壯年」為主。從人口結構看我國與其他世界先進國家都正面臨少子化的威脅。民國69年「12-24歲」人口統計至民國98年整整減少了904,984 人。人口變項可能導致遊樂園遊客人數多寡的主要因素。
本研究以SHAZAM計量經濟軟體伸縮最小平方法（FLS）建立預測模式推估民國101年至105年遊樂園遊客人數，推估五年共將減少約125萬遊客人數。本研究另設定物價消費者指數（CPI）及平均每人國民所得（GNP）等經濟因素交叉影響，比較推估發現，GNP年增率愈高，遊客人數推估值愈高。CPI年增率增高也會導致遊客人數減少。除非維持高經濟成長，並抑制物價消費指數，否則在少子化現象下，遊樂園遊客人數將呈現逐年下滑的形勢。

關鍵字

觀光遊樂業 ； 觀光預測 ； 少子化

並列摘要

Theme parks play an important role in the tourism industry. They not only facilitate a vibrant local economy, but they also promote tourism and its related industries such as transportation, food and beverage and hotel business. The domestic tourism industry has once been very prosperous. With the new entrepreneurs joining in the theme park business, instead of increasing, the tourist population actually decreases. A research by the government has shown that the major visitors to the theme parks are adolescents and young adults. Taking a look at the population structure, our country and other advanced countries are all facing the threat of the declining birthrate. According to a statistic, the population of 12-24-year-old has reduced 904,984 people from 1980 to 2009. The demographic changes may result in the major factors in determining the number of theme park visitors.
The study applies the SHAZAM Software and uses Flexible Least Squares (FLS) to establish a prediction model for estimating the number of theme park visitors. The result estimates that the tourist population will reduce approximately 1,250,000 people in the five years from 2012 to 2016.

The study also hypothesizes that Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross National Product (GNP) are cross impact factors. By comparison and estimation, it reveals that the higher the annual rate of GNP grows, the higher the estimated values of the tourist numbers will be obtained. An increase of the annual growth rate of CPI will also result in the reduction of the tourist population. Unless the economic growth rate maintains high, and the Consumer Price Index is retrained, the tourist population of theme park will gradually reduce year by year due to the declining birthrate.

並列關鍵字

the declining birthrate ； tourism prediction ； tourism

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