以模糊決策分析評選農業生物技術發展方案之研究

行政院於1998年將農業生物科技列為國家型科技計畫，優先開發花卉與觀賞植物、植物保護、水產養殖、動物用疫苗、農產品保鮮技術、環保技術及藥用保健植物等七大生物技術核心計晝共29項研發重點方案，在政府財政經費有限情況下，如何評選研發重點方案必為重要課題。本文是以技術移轉之觀點，籍以模糊集合理論為基礎，透過模糊語意變數方法，構建模糊決策分析模式，以為評選農業生物技術發展方案。並考慮決策者個人特質－樂觀或悲觀傾向，針對所有評選方案進行優劣排序，提供決策資訊。

關鍵字

農業生物技術；模糊集合論

並列摘要

Agricultural biotechnology projects have been assigned as national technology plans by the Execute Yen in 1998. There are seven core biotechnology projects, divided into twenty-nine alternatives, including floricultural and ornamental plants, plant protection, aquaculture, development on animal vaccine, medicinal and health crops production techniques, environmental protection technique, preservative treatment of agricultural products. Within the budgetary limits how to appropriate choose alternatives is important. The paper uses a fuzzy multi-criteria decision making method to select agricultural biotechnology development alternatives based on the concept of technology transfer. The algorithm for selecting alternatives is based on the fuzzy set theory and fuzzy linguistic variables methed. A ranking index based on the decision maker's optimistic (or pessimistic attitude) is proposed to determine the ranking order of all alternatives on experts decision making process.