近期美國對中科技政策的形成、轉變及其主要可能影響研析：以半導體產業為例

The Formation, Evolution and Major Possible Influence of the US's Technology Policy toward China: A Case Study of the Semiconductor Industry

葉長城(Chang-Chen Yeh)

《全球政治評論》 76期 (2021/10) Pp. 55-83

摘要

半導體（semiconductor）係現代電子設備大腦，應用範圍甚廣，由於當前科技產品與技術應用常攸關各國軍事、經貿、科技、安全與民生消費需求，因而使半導體的研發、生產及製造成為各國重視的關鍵戰略議題及物資之一。而美中兩強自美國歐巴馬政府（Obama Administration）執政後期以降，歷經川普政府（Trump Administration）乃至目前拜登政府（Biden Administration）上任後的博弈競爭，也從軍事外交一路擴散至貿易、科技領域，迄今美國對中半導體科技議題已成當前拜登政府科技抗中政策的關鍵主軸。基本上，自歐巴馬政府以降，主要可由產業政策與貿易利益、科技管制、確保供應鏈安全與未來科技主導權等主要因素，來說明美國近期在半導體科技政策領域對中國採取不同程度的因應政策及措施。歸納而言，近年來美國對中半導體科技政策係自歐巴馬政府執政後期開始出現重大變化，為因應中國積極扶植國內半導體產業、企圖大幅提高晶片自製率以及積極投資與併購美國半導體企業等挑戰，美國政府逐漸提高對中國科技戰略的警覺。迄川普政府時期，美中從貿易戰、科技戰、外交戰與軍事實力展示等，進行全面性的競爭。後續拜登政府上任，美國對中戰略競爭加劇格局雖未有根本改變，但在拜登政府特別著重以科技領域為主軸，改採「小院高牆」（small yard, high fence）與「多邊結盟」的策略遂行科技抗中的政策路線下，美國與全球半導體產業也將面臨多項來自機會與挑戰面的主要可能影響。最後，本文亦從產業政策與貿易利益、科技管制、供應鏈安全與未來科技主導權四方面，說明未來美國對中半導體科技政策議題的觀察重點，供未來相關研究參考。

關鍵字

美國 ； 中國 ； 半導體產業 ； 地緣政治

並列摘要

The semiconductor is the brain of modern electronics. It has a wide range of applications. As current technological products and applications are often related to the military, economic and trade, technology, security and consumers' needs of various countries, the R&D, production, and manufacturing of semiconductors have become the important strategic key issue and materials to all countries. In the meantime, the strategic competition between the United States (U.S.) and China have spread from military and diplomacy to the trade and technology issues before the end of Obama Administration, and then to the Trump Administration until the current Biden Administration. In the field of science and technology (S&T), the issue of U.S.'s semiconductor policy toward China has become the key issue of the Biden Administration's S&T policy against China. Basically, since the Obama Administration, major factors such as industrial policy and trade benefits, technological control, ensuring supply chain security, and the technological dominance in the future can be used to explain the recent U.S.'s policy response and measures in the field of U.S.'s semiconductor policy toward China. In summary, by major factors as above, this article argues that in recent years, the U.S.'s semiconductor policy toward China has undergone major changes before the end of Obama Administration for responding to China's active support of the domestic semiconductor industry, China's ambition to significantly increase the self-production rate of chips, and China's active investment as well as mergers and acquisitions of U.S. semiconductor companies. After that, the U.S. government has gradually increased its vigilance on China's S&T strategy. During the Trump Administration, the U.S. and China have engaged in comprehensive competition from the arena of trade, technological, diplomatic wars, to the military strength demonstrations. After the Biden Administration took office, although the pattern of intensified strategic competition between the U.S. and China has not fundamentally changed, however the Biden Administration has particularly focused on the S&T sector with new ＂small yard, high fence＂ and ＂multilateral alliance＂ strategies. Under the new S&T policy against China, the U.S. and the global semiconductor industries will also face a number of major possible influences from coming opportunities and challenges. Finally, this article also illustrates the focus of observation on the U.S.'s semiconductor policy toward China from the four major factors, which including industrial policy and trade benefits, technology control, supply chain security, and technology dominance for reference of related research in the future.

並列關鍵字

United States (U.S.) ； China ； semiconductor industry ； geopolitics