融資決策、股利政策與營運績效之研究：中國上市公司之實證

Financing, Dividend Policy and Operating Performance: Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms

余惠芳(Hui-Fun Yu) ； 蘇明達(Ming-Da Su) ； 李巧妤(Qiao-Yu Li)

《全球管理與經濟》 16卷2期 (2020/12) Pp. 65-80

https://doi.org/10.6565/JGME.202012_16(2).0005

摘要

本文主要係了解廠商之融資決策與股利政策對營運績效之影響，特別是2008年全球金融危機後，在中國兩個主要證券交易所上市科技業公司，建立財務預警模型，降低公司發生財務危機的機率。實證分析上，蒐集2008年至2019年，中國上市科技業94個公司樣本，7,896個觀測值進行Logistic迴歸分析。研究發現，影響科技業營運績效的主要變數為負債比率、流動比率、應收帳款週轉率、存貨週轉率、股東權益週轉率、每股稅後盈餘（EPS）、業外收支率、財務槓桿度、每股現金流量等九項。實證價值與管理涵意，研究結果建議經理人有：1.提高存貨週轉率與每股盈餘（EPS），當稅後淨利增加，買回庫藏股，降低普通股流通在外股數（股利政策），增強公司經營與獲利能力；2.降低業外收支率，重視本業之研發與創新，增強公司獲利能力；3.降低負債比率（融資決策），改善財務結構，降低公司發生財務危機的可能性。本文的貢獻，係首次嘗試利用Logistic迴歸分析，通過研究中國上市之電子科技業的特定行業，找出企業融資與股利政策的關鍵因素，提供經營者財務決策與投資人選股策略之參考，增補既有文獻之不足。

關鍵字

融資決策 ； 股利政策 ； Logistic迴歸分析

並列摘要

This study aims to explore the impact of financing and dividend policy on operating performance, particularly in technology industry on two main Chinese stock exchanges. Accounting data consisted of 94 publicly companies and applied logistic regression analysis on a dataset comprising 7,896 observations from 2008 to 2019. Findings, the main variables affecting operational performance are the debt ratio, liquidity ratio, inventory turnover, equity turnover, EPS, ratio of non-operating revenue and expenses, financial leverage and cash flow per share. Implications, based on empirical results suggest managers should increase inventory turnover and EPS to buy back treasury shares, pay attention to the research and development of the industry, reduce the debt ratio and improve financial structure. Originality, this research contributes to the operating performance literature by examining specific industry of technology, thus helping managers and investors with stock select ion strategy in the decision-making process and making their financing, dividend decisions.

並列關鍵字

Financing Policy ； Dividend Policy ； Logistic Regression Analysis