自九二一地震後,邊坡滑動的災害有顯著的上升,陸續到來的各大颱風、地震均造成了不少慘絕人寰的悲劇,為了避免如高雄小林村、草嶺及九份二山等崩塌的意外再次重演,故現今最重要的課題之一便是改善預警系統及土地使用法規,以在災害來臨時可以最大限度地減少生命財產損失。 為了評估大規模崩塌潛勢區,坡單元的研究與劃設也因此成為近年來頗受注目的課題,不同以往的網格單元及特殊條件單元,坡單元擁有更精確的表達與描繪地形變化的能力(Erener,2012),許多研究證實其預測崩塌潛勢的效果亦較佳(Guzzetti,1999)。 本研究以高雄那瑪夏地區為研究區,建立不同製作原則,如集水區重疊法、陰影圖法及坡向法的坡單元結果,與過去大規模崩塌之案例交叉比對後,配合各種協助判釋工具,如坡向、坡度、衛星影像、航照、地質等圖層,找出更加簡便及精確性高的坡單元製作方法;並以費雪區別函數,篩選崩塌潛勢影響因子,如坡向、高程、坡度…等,建立崩塌潛勢預測模型,檢討各參數對於大規模崩塌的影響程度,並將預測結果與真實情況比較探討其正確性,而後討論區域間的相似性,進而將模型套用至相似性較高地區,期望能防範災害於未然。
Since the 921earthquake, the typhoons and earthquakes induced the landslides often. In order to avoid other as Shao-lin, Tsaoling and Chiu-fen-er-shan landslides happen, the most important thing is to improve the early warning and of land use regulation which can minimum the damage in landslide. There are many evaluate and mapping method for prediction of landslide potential area. One of the important part is the selecting of mapping unit. The research of slope-unit is more noticeable; different from the grid unit and unique condition unit, slope –unit, slope-unit have better ability in describing slope’s alternation. Besides, many research prove that the slope-unit have better result in prediction of landslide potential than others. Taking Namasha district in Kaohsiung study area, this research use slope-unit derive by aspect, compared with aspect graph, slope graph, satellite images, aerial photos and geology map to construct convenient and high accuracy principle of making slope-unit; and figure out the affecting factors of landslide potential of fisher’s discriminant function to establish landslide potential model. Then, discuss the regional similarity to predict other region’s landslide potential.