分析師提供現金流量預測是否影響公司採用現金流量作為高階經理人之績效衡量指標

Is Analysts’ Cash Flow Forecast a Determinant of Firms’ Choice of Operating Cash Flow Metrics as Performance Measure?

羅浩芸(Hao-Yun Lo)

指導教授 ： 吳淑鈴

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/會計學研究所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2015.10610

摘要

有鑒於盈餘中由應計數組成之部分受制於管理階層主觀裁量，容易受到雜訊或窗飾之干擾而無法完全捕捉管理階層對於營運資金管理之績效，美國財務會計準則委員會規定自1988年起公司應編製現金流量表。本研究基於市場上對於盈餘之現金組成部分增加的關注，旨在討論分析師對於營業現金流量的預測是否會對於薪酬委員會使用績效衡量指標之傾向有所影響，並進一步探討該預測及薪酬制度設計對於公司後續期間之營業現金流量操縱是否有抑制或激勵的效果。
本研究以1993年至2011年間S&P 500公司中分析師有提供盈餘預測者作為樣本，實證結果顯示：分析師的營業現金流量預測對於公司激勵薪酬制度中現金流量指標的採用有顯著的正向影響，且其透過傳遞資訊給投資人所產生的監督力量亦可抑制高階經理人對營業現金流量之操縱。

關鍵字

分析師預測 ； 營業現金流量 ； 績效衡量指標 ； 高階經理人薪酬

並列摘要

For the reason that accrual component of earnings contains more noise and might involve more window dressing, firms are required to provide Statement of Cash Flows as part of the full set of financial statements since 1988. Motivated by the increasing attention by securities market toward the cash component of earnings, this study examines whether the choice of operating cash flows (OCF) performance measure in incentive compensation contracts is influenced by the provision of analysts’ cash flow forecasts. Moreover, the analysis further examines whether the existence of both analysts’ forecasts and cash flows related performance measure in compensation plan might have monitoring or motivation effects on firms’ operating cash flow manipulation.
The empirical results show that the provision of analysts’ OCF forecasts is positively associated with the decision of compensation committee to include OCF metric measures in CEO compensation plan. The findings also suggest that the monitoring effect of analyst following will result in less operating cash flow manipulation.

並列關鍵字

Analyst forecast ； operating cash flows ； performance measure ； CEO compensation

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