自古以來人類對於石油的使用,主要集中於照明、潤滑及醫藥方面。而近代石油則被作為能源及化工基礎原料的來源,滿足人類對於取暖、動力及非天然材料的需求。因為石油的特性及人類對它的依賴,導致近二個世紀以來,人類為爭奪石油,發生多起戰爭,足見石油對人類社會的重要性。 2005~2009年及2010~2016年是近年國際石油價格發生劇烈波動的二個時期,本文以國際政治經濟學的「國際建制」、以及經濟學上「寡佔市場」的「卡特爾」理論,透過石油輸出國家組織(OPEC)在這二個時期,干預油價的案例,來探究其能力、使用方法,以及干預無效時其如何自我調整。 研究獲知一位資源雄厚的調節者,可有效維繫一個運作不佳的國際建制。此外,石油輸出國家組織(OPEC)主要透過調節石油的供應量,來影響石油的價格,倘效果不如預期,則藉「加大調節幅度」、「延後決定成員國增減產配額」及「協調非石油輸出國家組織(Non-OPEC)產油國共同配合」等方式,作為因應。 美國川普總統為降低美國對中東石油的依賴,揚言擴大探勘、開採美國境內石油,以及推動頁岩油產業,亦可藉由本研究,獲知川普能否成功,關鍵因素在於降低頁岩油開採成本。此外,本研究之結論亦可作為台灣規劃國家石油政策的參考。
Since ancient times, human use of petroleum has mainly focused on lighting, lubrication, and medicine. Modern petroleum is used as a source of energy and chemical raw materials to satisfy human needs for heating, power, and non-natural materials. Because of the nature of oil and humans’ dependence on it over the past two centuries, people have competed for oil and this has led to many wars. This shows the importance of oil to human society. During the periods of 2005~2009 and 2010~2016 oil prices experienced severe fluctuations. This paper uses the “international regime” of international political economics and the “cartel” theory of “Oligopoly market” in economics. In these two periods, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) intervened in the case of oil prices to explore its capabilities, methods of use, and how it self-adjusts when the intervention is ineffective. The study found that a resourceful regulator can effectively maintain an under-performing international regime. In addition, OPEC mainly influences the price of oil by adjusting the supply of oil. If the effect is not as expected, it will use “increase in adjustment rate”, “determining the increase and decrease of output quotas by member states” and “coordination”. Non-oil-exporting countries (Non-OPEC) cooperate with the oil-producing countries, etc. as a response.