北約東擴對俄羅斯與北約關係之影響(1991-2018)

本文探討的目的是為了解當北約東擴，對俄羅斯本身的一種自我防衛與保護的反應行動，和北約是否因為俄羅斯的反應行動使北約有所警惕。研究成果明顯示出是以北約的美國為主要決定者，關乎到美國利益的問題，北約及採取強硬手段阻止俄羅斯，若沒有美國利益在其中，北約就明顯有所約束，這就是國際政治的現實。 1991年底蘇聯瓦解獨立國協的國家誕生後，轉變成為美國單極體系獨強的國際政治權力的國際社會。蘇聯解體後的俄羅斯在這段時間的變化，不僅是意識型態的改變，更重要的是俄羅斯外交政策對世局的衝擊及影響。北約由於轉型的成功，使得北約能以轉型的方式維持現況。可是，北約深知若要在國際社會維持其存在的合理化和適當性，勢必要成為一個動態的北約。因此，北約在1994年1月總部在比利時首都布魯塞爾召開高峰會議，決議通過開放北約的大門，同意歐洲其它國家加入北約組織成為其會員國。北約開始展開東擴計畫，三次東擴計畫過程和完成的同時，讓俄羅斯受到相當嚴重的刺激與挑釁。然而俄羅斯也適時地開始採取該有的反應行動，使得冷戰結束，因為北約的東擴行為和俄羅斯的反應行動，使歐洲重新面臨了一個新冷戰的歐洲政局(或稱為新分裂的歐洲)。北約往東擴大象徵著國際社會中的強權政治的權力擴張，不過國際社會為無政府狀態，當俄羅斯感受到其國家安全遭受到嚴重威脅時，惟有自己採取反應行動，方可遏止這股擴張的勢力向其鄰國(喬治亞與烏克蘭)漫延，影響俄羅斯在區域霸權(regional hegemons)的地位。因此，在2008年至2014年分別爆發了「俄羅斯與喬治亞軍事衝突」、「俄烏天然氣事件」、「烏克蘭政治危機與俄羅斯的反應」和「克里米亞公投事件」的四起國際衝突紛爭事件，這四起紛爭是俄羅斯對北約的警告，也是俄羅斯對本身的一種自我防衛與保護。今後，俄羅斯與北約之間的關係是否友善，還是處於緊張、對峙的局勢，彼此間的相互影響又是如何？這些議題依然是要以現實主義的理論、思維和作法，加上國際局勢變動不居的國際社會來觀察、分析和判斷。具有動物本能的人類，如果真能以合作代替戰爭，共同創造出祥和的地球村，這應該是地球上普羅大眾所夢寐以求的未來和平的世界。

關鍵字

現實主義；北約；華沙公約組織；俄羅斯；東擴計畫

並列摘要

The purpose of this article is to understand why NATO decided to expand eastward, the response of Russia to NATO’s enlargement and the reaction of NATO to Russia’s actions. The research results clearly show that NATO, which is dominated by the United States, in fact acts in the USA interests. If there were no US interest in it, NATO’s policy towards Russia possibly could be more cautious. This is the regrettable reality of the international politics nowadays. At the end of 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. After the birth of the Commonwealth of Independent States, the world was transformed into an international society with a single dominating power. The changes in Russia during the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union not only included drastic ideological changes, but the new formulation of the priorities of Russian foreign policy as well. At that time, NATO was able to maintain its previous status in a transformational manner. However, NATO in order to maintain the rationalization and appropriateness of its existence, came to a decision that it must become an expanding military-political alliance. Therefore, in January 1994, NATO's headquarters held a summit meeting in Brussels, Belgium, and decided to open the door of NATO, thereby agreeing to other European countries to join NATO as its members. NATO began to expand its sphere of influence to the East. At the same time, as a result of the process of the three expansions to the East, Russia was severely provoked. Thereafter, Russia also began to take the appropriate response actions in due course. NATO's eastward expansion and Russia's response have brought Europe back to a brink of the〝new〞Cold War and newly divided Europe. NATO's Eastward Expansion Plan symbolizes the strengthening of power politics inside the international community. Since Russia felt that its national security was seriously threatened, it was only one option possible - to take response actions. So, that it might be able to stop the expansion of NATO to its neighbors (Georgia and Ukraine), and to avoid the negative affect upon Russia's national security. Therefore, from 2008 to 2014, "the military conflict between Russia and Georgia", "the natural gas incident between Russia and Ukraine", "the Ukrainian political crisis and Russia's response" and "the Crimean referendum incident" occurred, a total of four international conflicts and disputes. These four disputes were Russia's warning to NATO, and Russia's self-defense and protection measures. In this respect, the following questions are relevant: 1) if the relations between Russia and NATO could probably be friendly and based on cooperation? 2) under what conditions the positive transformation of bilateral ties is possible? 3) will the confrontational approach prevail in the foreseeable future? 4) and if it will, what affect it could have on the policies of the two parties? These issues are still to be observed and analyzed, on the foundation of the modern theories of international relations. If humans with animal instincts can really replace war with cooperation and jointly create a peaceful global village, this should be the future world dreamed by all the people on earth.