運動彩券於2008年5月在台灣發行,運動彩券種類包括棒球、籃球及足球,簽注方式有讓分、大小、勝分差、混合過關、冠軍及不讓分,不同的簽注方式由發行機關設定賠率。而選定不同的運動彩券種類及簽注方式可參考哪些資料,對運動彩券購買之決策是否有差異,為本研究所要探討的重點。本研究藉由文獻、網路蒐集到可能影響運動比賽結果之指標,以專家意見,進行修改及篩選後,給予權重訂出購買運動彩券決策之模型。 本研究為探討不同消費者在購買決策過程中會考量哪些影響運動彩券決策之指標,首先以消費者決策模式做為問卷設計基礎,以電子郵件及電話邀訪的方式遴選專家,經專家確認購面及指標定義後,以模糊德菲法取得專家認為會影響運動彩券購買決策之指標;第二:詢問第一階段邀請到之專家對影響彩券購買決策指標之模糊權重,並採取相似性整合法整合專家意見,最後導入模糊階層分析法訂出模型並以模型來模擬彩券購買決策。 萃取出四構面十三個指標,四構面為『資訊』、『消費行為』、『心理指標』、『歷史資料』,權重為0.100、0.113、0.313、0.474,構面與指標權重相乘下前五大重要指標為『球隊近況比較』、『購買動機』、『對戰紀錄』、『賭盤設計』、『購買頻率』,權重為0.285、0.208、0.174、0.074、0.060。以五至六月美國職棒大聯盟及美國職業籃球聯盟賽事進行驗證,預測棒球共八場,錯誤一場;預測籃球50場,錯誤13場,共預測58場,錯誤14場,模型正確率為75.86%。
This study wants to discover the buying behavior of sport lottery, not as same as usual lottery. Refer to historical datas、portfolio against、recent perfprmance , to hope select a most effective decision by multi informational resource such as; betting station information、internet community news、news paper、maganize and betting subject…et al., in the more and more mature situation to lottery and buying habbit, more and more relational gambling products occur, different types、various kinds of playing and bonus allocation…et al., not only makes consumers have more buying options, but also cause information asymmetry for consumers in buying options and confused with buying decision, I wish to help consumers make buying decision more effective. In this paper, we applied fuzzy Delphi method analysis to find out the most important criteria for factors influence the buying behavior of sport lottery. It is found that among all those 4 constructs, 16 criterias,by applying fuzzy theory to solve the indefinite problem of experts’ consensus ; and by FAHP and SAM calculating the important degree of each factor and sorting. Select more objective evaluate factor accordind to statistics results, therefore extract totally 4 constructs, 16 criterias to be aimed at buying decision of sport lottery.