獨立自主(不結盟)貝洨政策是中共當前外交政策的主軸,從冷戰時代邁入後冷戰時代,中共所處的國際與國內環境,與十八年前大不相同。近兩年,中共面對來自美國的威脅日益上升,去年的北約誤炸中共駐南斯拉夫大使館事件,更對中共造成衝擊。 中共對外政策雖未因此發生明顯劇變,惟與俄羅斯關係加強、軍事外交比重上升、對外軍購增加等作為,皆顯示面對日漸加劇的外在威脅,調整外交步調的壓力升高。更有跡象顯示,中共與俄羅斯為對抗美國,曾洽商結盟的可能性。中俄結盟,不僅涉及中共外交政策基調的調整,對於整個亞太、甚至是全球安全結構,皆將造成重要影響。 惟礙於過去結盟的歷史經驗、內部發展需求、與俄羅斯關係的矛盾,在短期內,中共繼續維持不結盟的獨立自主外交政策,全力發展國力,似為最有利的選擇。
Currently, mainland China places great emphasis on its independent foreign policy, or the so called non-aligned policy. Emerging from the Cold War era to enter the Post Cold War era, the international and domestic environments which China now faces are totally different from 18 years ago. In the past two years, the threat from the U.S. to the PRC has increased. The embassy bombing incident in Yugoslavia by NATO last year had a great impact on China. Although China's foreign policy did not change drastically and after the incident, closer ties with Russia (a higher ratio of military diplomacy and more weaponary purchases) show that the pressure to adjust foreign policy is increasing under intensifying external threats. Moreover, evidence shows the PRC and Russia have negotiated over the possibility of forming an anti-America military alliance. If this alliance is formed, not only will the fundamental principles of China's foreign policy change, but this in turn will have a great impact throughout the entire Asia-Pacific and even affect global stability.