國際資本流動、金融發展與經濟成長：亞洲國家之驗證

International Capital Flow, Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Asian Countries

柏婉貞

《亞太經濟管理評論》 13卷1期 (2009/12) Pp. 39-52

https://doi.org/10.30087/APEMR.200912.0003

摘要

本文主要利用異質性追蹤共整合技術來檢視亞洲10國的國際資本流動、金融發展與經濟成長之間的關係，研究期間為1980-2007年。本研究有別於過去學者之研究。首先，我們使用追蹤資料以擴大樣本觀察值，並利用追蹤共整合檢定來提升更強的檢定力與更高的自由度。其次，本研究利用虛擬變數來探討1997年亞洲金融危機結構性改變之影響。最後，本文建構動態追蹤誤差修正模型來估計變數之間的長、短期因果關係。研究結果發現亞洲國家的金融發展與經濟成長之間存在長期雙向因果關係，支持各國金融發展追隨經濟成長的「需求追隨」假說，且國際資本流動有助於亞洲各國金融發展與經濟成長，但高度國際資本流動反而導致經濟衰退。

關鍵字

國際資本流動 ； 金融發展 ； 經濟成長

並列摘要

This paper using the new heterogeneous panel cointegration technique to investigates the relationship among international capital flow, financial development and economic growth in 10 Asian countries over the period 1980-2007. Our paper is distinct from other researches in several respects. First, it uses a cointegration test for panel data which provides more powerful tests and allows us to increase the degrees of freedom. Next, this paper uses the dummy variable to representative 1997 financial crisis to deal with exist the structure break. Finally, it structures a panel dynamic model to distinguish between long and short run relationship among the variables. The paper finds that in the long run there is a bi-directional causality relationship between finance development and economic growth in Asian countries, and support the finance development follow economic growth hypothesis. Moreover, international capital flow has positive effect on finance development and economic growth, but over international capital flow has significantly negative effect on it.

並列關鍵字

International Capital Flow ； Financial Development ； Economic Growth

參考文獻

莊希豐(2005)。金融發展與經濟成長之臺灣實證研究。臺灣銀行季利。5(4)，64-85。

李建強(2005)。銀行發展、股市發展與經濟成長－台灣的實證研究。台灣經濟預測與政策。35(2)，79-105。

Acemoglu, D.,F. Zilibotti(1997).Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk Diversification, and Growth.Journal of Political Economy.105,709-751.

Alfaro, L.,A. Chanda,S. Kalernli-Ozcan,S. N. Sayek,FDI,Economic Growth(2001).The Role of Local Financial Markets.(Harvard Business School, Working Paper Number 83).

Arellano, M.,S. R Bond(1991).Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and An Application to Employment Equations.Review of Economic Studies.58,277-297.