房地產價格,因異質性強、價格不透明、交易過程繁複以及變現性差為經濟落後指標,為了幫助國人瞭解房地產價格的趨勢,將股市成交值、台幣匯率、利率與台北市房地產價格作互動關聯比較,希望藉此能對有意承購房地產的投資人有所幫助。 本研究旨在藉由Huang et al.(1998)所提出的「赫伯特-黃變換法」( Hilbert-Huang Transformation )此一經驗法則在處理非線性的問題能跳脫出傳統數學理論限制展現出的獨到優點,而將相關的各種金融數據如股市成交值、台幣匯率、利率與台北市房地產價格作互動關聯比較。探討從1995年到2008年以來各項金融數據與台北市預估成交坪單價之間相互的關聯性。 研究實證結果台北市房地產預估坪單價(國泰建設股份有限公司每季發表的國泰房地產指數季報) 在消除雜訊後的餘數(Residual)共53筆,台北市房地產價格與台灣證券交易所的成交值趨勢有明顯的同步同方向的正向相關聯對應關係、台北市房地產價格與台灣證券交易所的營建業成交值趨勢則無對應關係、台北市房地產價格與台幣對美元匯率有正向對應關係以及台北市房地產價格與利率則無正向對應關係。
Because of the different property, opacity of value, complicated trade process, and poor exchanging cash, the property value is the target of economic backwater. In order to help people understand the trend of the property value, we compare the various financial statistics such as turnover, exchange rate of NTD and interest rate with the property value in Taipei. Hope that it can help those who invest the real property. The study adopts the Hilbert-Huang Transformation (HHT,黃鍔,1998) in order to analyze the non-linear problems outside the restricted of traditional mathematics theory. We use HHT to compare all kinds of financial statistics such as turnover, exchange rate of NTD and interest rate with the property value. This article has studied every interaction between the financial statistics and the estimated bargain per level ground from 1995 to 2008. After eliminating the interference of total 53 data, it shows that the estimated bargain per level ground in Taipei (The quarterly publication of the Cathay Real Estate) is obviously direct proportion to the turnover of TWSE. But the property value in Taipei is not relation to the turnover of construction business of TWSE. The property value in Taipei is relation to the exchange rate between USD and NTD, and is not relation to interest rate.