外資法人投資決策與上市公司強制性財務預測更新及報紙提前揭露之相關性研究

The Study of QFII's Investment Policy on the Relation Between the Updated Compulsive Financial Forecast of the Public Listing Firms and the Pre-disclosure of the Newspaper

黃宏文(Hung-Wen Huang)

指導教授 ： 胡為善

中原大學/商學院/會計研究所/碩士(2001年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200100448

摘要

論文摘要
本研究係探討外資法人之投資決策與上市公司強制性的財務預測更新及報紙提前揭露之相關性研究。藉由探討外資機構投資人的買賣超行為將有助於瞭解是否與政府當初開放外資的預期一致。政府當初開放外資主要是希望藉由外資法人引進其悠久的股市經驗及雄厚的財力，以促進我國經濟發展，此外，並期望能健全國內的資本市場結構，提昇股市水準。因此，本研究主要在探討強制性財務預測之更新時點與外資法人之投資決策的關係，其次探討外資法人對財務預測更新之會計資訊是否會影響其投資決策。本研究之結論如下：
（一）當企業正向更新其財務預測時，報紙提前宣告不會造成外資法人買超的顯著性差異。
（二）當企業正向更新其財務預測時，強制性公佈不會造成外資法人買超的顯著性差異。
（三）當企業負向更新其財務預測時，報紙提前宣告會成外資法人賣超的顯著性差異。
（四）當企業負向更新其財務預測時，強制性公佈不會造成外資法人賣超的顯著性差異。
（五）當企業正向更新其財務預測時，不論強制性或報紙提前宣告均與產業別沒有顯著關係。
（六）當企業負向更新其財務預測時，不論強制性或報紙提前宣告均與產業別沒有顯著關係。
（七）在強制性財務預測方面，外資法人的買賣超和公司規模之大小並無顯著關係，但與稅前盈餘變動有顯著關係。
（八）在報紙提前宣告方面，外資法人的買賣超與公司規模之大小及稅前盈餘的變動均有顯著關係。

關鍵字

盈餘預測

並列摘要

Abstract

This study investigates the investment policy of the foreign investment institution’s investment policy on the relationship between the updated compulsive financial forecast of the firm and the pre-disclosure of the newspaper. At the beginning of opening door to foreign investors, the government wish that foreign investment institution could provide their stock market experience and abundant capital to improve the stock market structure in Taiwan. This study first explores the relationship between the updating compulsive financial forecast and the foreign institution investment policy. Secondly, it examines whether the accounting information of the updated compulsive financial forecast affects the foreign institution investment policy or not. The empirical results are as follows：

（1）When the company updating its financial forecast positively, the disclosure of the newspaper does not significantly affect QFII’s investment policy.
（2）When the company updating its financial forecast positively, the updated compulsive financial forecast does not significantly affect foreign institutions’ investment policy.
（3）When the company updating its financial forecast negatively, the disclosure of the newspaper significantly affect QFII’s investment policy.
（4）When the company updating its financial forecast negatively, the compulsive financial forecast update does not significantly affect QFII’s investment policy.
（5）Under either positive circumstance, the industry category does not affect QFII’s investment policy.
（6）Under either negative circumstance, the industry category does not affect QFII’s investment policy.
（7）In the updated compulsive financial forecast case, there is no significant relation between the company’s size and QFII’s investment policy, but the income before tax has a significant relation with QFII’s investment policy.
（8）In the pre-disclosure of the newspaper case, the company’s size and the income before tax have both significant relation with QFII’s investment policy.

並列關鍵字

Earnings Forecast

參考文獻

1.中華民國會計研究發展基金會財務會計準則第十六號－財務預測編制要點，民國七十八年十二月二十八日。

2.中華民國會計研究發展基金會審計準則公報第十九號－財務預測核閱要點，民國七十九年十月十六日。

10.財政部證券暨期貨管理委員會「公開發行公司財務預測公開體系實施要點」，台財證（六）000588，民國八十六年。

4.吳安妮，”台灣經理人員主動揭露盈餘預測資訊內涵之實證研究”，會計評論第27期，第76-107頁，民國八十二年四月。

1.Atiase, R. K. 1985,”Predisclosure Information, Firm Captialization, and Security Price Behavior around Earnings Announcements”, Journal of Accounting Research, pp.21-36.