年輕家戶之住宅自有率變遷分析

An Analysis of Young Households’ Homeownership Rates

李建樺(Chien-Hua Lee)

指導教授 ： 彭建文

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/不動產與城鄉環境學系/碩士(2013年)

摘要

過去台灣房價持續的攀升，但住宅自有率亦同步攀升，如此特異現象引起不少研究探討，但卻均未發現年輕家戶住宅自有率以較高的漲幅增加，一反國外房價增加而年輕家戶住宅自有率降低之情形，本研究使用家庭收支調查資料，以Logistic迴歸模型針對1981、1990、2000及2006年進行實證分析，認為過去台灣住宅自有率上漲情形係由年輕家戶住宅自有率增長所致，而該現象主因為預期房價增值抵銷了房價上漲所帶來的擁屋成本，同時所得又大幅提升所致。本研究實證結果顯示擁屋相對成本、借款限制、未成年子女數與居住於都市對於擁屋率有顯著負向影響，家戶所得、戶內人口數、每人居住面積對擁屋率則為顯著正向影響。從政策模擬結果可發現借款限制的調整對擁屋率影響較大，而租金補貼較無效益，建議政府宜全盤考量並健全住宅與租賃市場，提供多元居住選擇。另一方面，本研究亦發現年輕世代有越來越缺乏經濟獨立性的趨勢。

關鍵字

住宅自有率 ； 住宅租擁選擇 ； 年輕家戶

並列摘要

The continuous soar of house price in Taiwan in the past along with the simultaneous climb of homeownership rate was an exceptional phenomenon that led to quite a few researches and discussions. However, the rise of the homeownership rate of young people was not higher compared with people of other groups, which was different from foreign countries where the homeownership rate of young people declined with the increase of house price. The study adopted the information of Survey of Family Income and Expenditure in 1981, 1990, 2000 and 2006 to conduct empirical analysis with logistic regression models. It assumed that in the past, the increase of the homeownership rate in Taiwan was caused by the rise of the homeownership rate of young people, and the phenomenon was because the anticipated value rise of house price offset homeownership cost brought by the soar of house price and because of the significant increase of earnings at the same time. The results of the study showed that housing relative cost, borrowing constrain, number of minor children and residence in cities had significantly negative influence on the homeownership rate, while household earnings, number of persons per household and living space per person had significantly positive influence on the homeownership rate. From the results of policy simulation, it could be discovered that the adjustment of borrowing constrain had greater influence on the homeownership rate, while rent subsidies had less benefit. The study suggested that the government should consider thoroughly and build a sound housing and leasing market and that it provide diverse housing choices. On the other hand, the study also discovered that young generations had the trend of being less and less economically independent.

並列關鍵字

Homeownership Rate ； Housing Tenure Choice ； Young Households

參考文獻

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