東亞國家民主發展與鞏固前景：從公民政治價值觀分析

The Democratic Development and Consolidation Prospects of East Asia Countries: Analysis from Citizens Political Values

巫俊穎(Chun-Ying Wu)

指導教授 ： 朱雲漢

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/政治學研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.00588

摘要

東亞地區包含民主、半民主和威權政體，隨著東協區域整合與經濟發展，本區域未來的政治發展備受世人注目，現有的威權或半民主政體有無可能邁向民主轉型？現有的民主政體能否順利邁向鞏固？都是政治學界關心的議題。然而現有的經驗研究分析所提出的民主轉型或鞏固之先決要件中，都能找到對民主政治正面與反面作用的國家案例，顯示民主政治的出現或維繫難以用單一因素概括解釋，然而從東亞第三波民主化成功的案例中可以得知公民社會的動員和抗爭是民主順利轉型與存續的不可或缺因素，這有賴公民民主自由政治意識的覺醒。除此之外，民主政府若無法提供良好的民主品質治理，容易使新興民主國家公民感到不滿，民主政治難以穩定；相對地，如果威權政府能提供讓人民滿意的民主品質治理，威權政體也能穩固。

因此，東亞各國公民的民主政治價值觀高低、公民對民主品質的評價高低對於民主轉型與鞏固是重要的，什麼是影響各國總體的公民民主政治價值觀和民主品質評價的來源？各國個體層次的公民民主政治價值觀形塑模式為何？什麼是一個民主國家邁向政治穩固或非民主國家邁向轉型的條件？這些都是本文想要回答的。本文使用第二波亞洲民主動態調查（Asia Barometer Survey）為分析資料。

本文實證研究結果顯示，東亞地區未來的民主政治發展最大障礙在於公民自由價值並不普遍，公民多希望和諧與穩定的秩序，也願意賦予行政機關更大的權力，同時法治觀念亦不足，這使東南亞半民主或威權國家即使限制人權和自由、干預司法，社會上也沒有大規模動員要求政治自由化的呼聲，大部份公民反對威權政體並不等於自由民主理念已然在社會成為主流價值。東亞的民主國家則面臨人民普遍對民主品質感到不滿的情形，這造成些微的政局動盪但是不會發生民主崩潰，但是不穩定的民主政體如泰國與菲律賓，由於人民對自由民主價值沒有高度偏好，未來仍將處於不穩定的狀態。

關鍵字

民主化 ； 民主鞏固 ； 政治文化 ； 政治發展 ； 民主品質

並列摘要

East Asian countries range from full democracies to authoritarian regimes. Following the integration of the ASEAN countries and impressive economic development across the region, the future political development of East Asia has attracted considerable attention. In this respect a number of important questions have emerged. First, will the authoritarian regimes in the region democratize? Second, will the current democracies in the region further consolidate their progress? Although these questions have been extensively discussed and analysed within the discipline of political science, scholars have not been able to identify a single national case that shows a positive or negative impact on democratic politics. Clearly, it is not possible to use a single factor to explain the emergence or persistence of democratic politics. However, successful cases of democratization within the third wave democracies included in the Asian Barometer Survey reveal that mobilization and resistance from the civil society sector is essential to successful democratization and sustainable democratic progress. The growth of an effective civil society sector in turn depends on the appearance of liberal democratic values among citizens. Furthermore, if a democratic government is unable to deliver good quality of democratic governance, democratic politics is likely to be unstable. Conversely, if an authoritarian regime is able to deliver effective “democratic” governance, it is likely to be stable.

Therefore, the strength of democratic values and citizens’ evaluations of the quality of democracy are critical factors in the transition to democracy and the consolidation of new democracies. What factors influence collective democratic values and citizens’ evaluations of the quality of democracy? How are the democratic values of individual citizens produced? What factors produce political stability in democracies and democratic transitions in authoritarian regimes? In order to probe these puzzles, this paper uses data from the second wave of the Asia Barometer Survey.

The results of our empirical study reveal that the greatest barrier to the future democratic development of the East Asia region is a lack of civil liberal values. Many citizens hope for a harmonious and stable society, and are willing to grant extensive powers to executive bodies. At the same time, the concept of the rule of law is not deeply embedded within society. As a result, even when semi-democracy or authoritarian regimes in East Asia fail to respect human rights, restrict civil liberties, and interfere with the legal process, there is no large scale mobilization within society demanding political liberalization. The fact that most citizens oppose authoritarian regimes is not the same as saying that democratic values have become mainstream within society. Conversely, existing democracies within the region are facing wide spread dissatisfaction with democratization. So far, this has caused political upheavals, but not the collapse of democratic government. However, unstable democracies such as Thailand and the Philippines are unlikely to see an improvement due to a lack of liberal democratic values within society.

並列關鍵字

democratization ； democratic consolidation ； political culture ； political development ； democratic quality

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