815停電事件對總統滿意度的影響：以文字探勘為途徑

林玿弘

doi:10.6342/NTU201901625

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815停電事件對總統滿意度的影響：以文字探勘為途徑

The Influence of 815 Power Failure on The President Approval Rating: A Text-mining Approach

林玿弘 , Masters　　Advisor：張佑宗　　

繁體中文 DOI： 10.6342/NTU201901625

總統滿意度；文字探勘；機器學習；課責； The President Approval Rating ； Text-mining ； Machine-Learning ； Accountability

Abstract │ Reference (57) │ Altmetrics

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The presidential approval rating is an important indicator to judge the performance of the president. We have measured the president approval rating by survey. But limited by some factors such as budget or time, the data points in time are dispersion. Due to this dispersion, we are difficult to answer how the event affects the president approval rating. To solve the above trouble, this paper tries to advance a new measurement by internet data.
This paper will label whether user approval the president or not by its post or comment in PTT Gossiping Board during 2017. And this measurement is based on a semi-supervised machine-learning approach. Through this measurement, we can obtain more intensive data on time. That is why this paper can answer the user’s attitude changing and forming in a different time and on a different issue. This research points out that the performance of this measurement is fitting the past researches. More advantageous is that this measurement is free from the time setting, so is powerful to evaluate the short-term and the immediacy event affection.
This paper pick 729 power limited and 815 power failure in 2017 as examples. We distinguished the user about inner and outer Taiwan island. Through the natural experiment, this paper discusses whether the user changes its attitude after it is effected. In the past, because of lacking the pre-test data, we had difficult to estimate the event influence. We also had difficulty to tracking event affection. So we are difficult to know the sphere and the duration of the event influence in the past. This paper points out that the inner user which be effected more will more tend to give disapproval attitude than outer and without influence. Moreover, this paper can estimate the influence of event duration more exactly.

Reference ( 57 ) 〈TOP〉

Barry C. Burden and Anthony Mughan. 2003. “The International Economy and Presidential Approval”. The Public Opinion Quarterly. 67(4):555-578.
Brandice Canes-Wrone. 2004. “The Public Presidency, Personal Approval Ratings, and Policy Making”. Presidential Studies Quarterly. 34(3): 472-492.
Brian J. Gaines. 2002. “Where's the Rally? Approval and Trust of the President, Cabinet, Congress, and Government Since September 11”. Political Science and Politics. 35(3): 530-536.
Brian J. Gaines. 2002. “Where's the Rally? Approval and Trust of the President, Cabinet, Congress, and Government Since September 11”. Political Science and Politics. 35(3): 530-536.
Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels. 2016. Democracy for Realists. NJ, Princeton: Princeton University Press.

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