以往,傳統產業的決策,大多由單一決策者、以低理性的決策過程產生,因而決策錯誤的風險偏高。由於大型土地開發案的投資金額極高,任何決策錯誤將可能帶來數十億元的損失,因此必須使用結合群體決策的理性決策模式,以獲得最大利益、並減少錯誤。 本研究採用Fundamentals of management之八步驟決策流程,取其中的定義主題、定義決策的準則、分派準則的權重、推演選項、至分析選項五大步驟,做為研究流程之主軸。 根據個案公司的歷史背景,共產生五種可選擇方案,來自二種土地開發模式:聯合開發及自建;對應二種開發型態:住商混合及純商場;另加上對照組:出售素地開發模式。另採用二項核心能力(組織能力及財務能力);與三項非核心能力(立地條件、社會責任、及企業形象),作為決策權重項目,並將其分析結果提交8位決策者研讀後,填寫可選擇方案之評分問卷調查表。 權重加總評分結果:依得分高低為:聯合開發.住商混合;自建.住商混合;出售素地;聯合開發.純商場;自建.純商場。經分析所得本研究結論為:○1開發型態:住商混合優於純商場。○2開發模式:聯合開發優於自建。○3出售素地並非最差的選擇。○4本研究符合理性決策程序。
The decisions of tradition industries used to make from one maker with low-rational model, thus the risk of wrong decisions were very high. To avoid the billions lost from wrong decisions in the large land-developing case with huge investment, we must use the rational model with group decision-making for the largest profit and lowest risk. The axis processes of this research were: Identification of a problem; Identification of decision criteria; Allocation of weights to criteria; Development of alternatives; and Analysis of alternatives, all from the 8 steps decision-making processes from the book “Fundamentals of management”. 5 alternatives developed by the histories of the case-company: 2 land-developing models: cooperation (with other company) and all-by-self vs. 2 land-developing styles: housing-commercial mixed and pure commercial building; the fifth was the blank-control one: sale out the blank land. By the way, 5 weight items were chosen: 2 core abilities (organization and finance) with 3 non-core ones (land condition, social responsibility and company image), the analysis reports of above send to 8 decision-makers to study and then filled the evaluation questionnaire for the alternatives. The result of weight-evaluated from highest score to lowest was: mixed building with cooperation; mixed building with all-by-self; pure commercial building with cooperation; sale out the blank land; and pure commercial building with all-by-self. The conclusions were: 1. Mixed building better than pure commercial at styles. 2. Cooperation better than all-by-self at models. 3. To sale out the blank land was not the worst choice. 4. The decision-making process matched to rational model.