- 學位論文
需求不確定下低碳能源科技投資決策之評估：實質選擇權法
The assessment of low-carbon energy technologies investment decision under demand uncertainty: Real options approach
摘要
隨著環境變化的威脅，全球已開始重視低碳能源技術開發與投資的重要性。然而由於傳統的現金流量折現值，忽略管理者的決策彈性並且容易低估價值，所以本文旨在利用二項式實質選擇權法，評估低碳能源科技投資決策。 本研究顯示在低碳能源科技投資決策存在延遲投資選擇權、擴充投資選擇權、縮減投資選擇權及放棄投資選擇權，並且透過計算結果得知擴充NPV是為正的。這表示企業作投資決策時，使用選擇權評估可以有別於傳統淨現值所沒注意到的決策彈性都考量進去。同時，延遲投資選擇權、擴充投資選擇權、縮減投資選擇權及放棄投資選擇權利用數值分析及敏感度分析探討變數對於擴充NPV之影響，發現投資成本的變數是呈現負向相關的，波動率與無風險利率的變數是呈現正向相關的。因此，本研究可作為低碳能源科技投資業者之決策參考依據。
並列摘要
Due to the threat of Environment change, it is an important issue to stress the technology development and investment of Low-carbon Energy. But, the method of traditional discounted cash flow ignores the flexibility value of decisions, thus underestimates the value of flexibility. We apply real options model to assess the investment decision of Low-carbon energy technology under demand uncertainty. We show that it exist the option to defer, option to expand, option to contract, option to abandon in Low-carbon Energy Technologies Investment precision, and the Extensive-NPV is positive by calculating. The corporate apply the real option approach to assess the investment decision of Low-carbon energy technology different from the tradition method; it considers the flexibility of decision. In the meantime, it evaluates the effect of important variable on Extensive-NPV by the numerical analysis and sensitivity analysis. It finds that the negative decision variable is investment cost, and the positive is risk free interest rate and volatility. Therefore, this paper can be a reference to evaluate the decision rule for Low-carbon Energy Technologies Investment.