本文的研究背景著眼於新北市議員李翁月娥女士於2014年11月的選舉個案分析,該議員除1998年鄉鎮市長選舉未當選之外,其他所參與的選舉皆連任成功。在2000年台北縣升格為新北市之後,為延續政治跑道,李翁月娥女士以末代市長(蘆洲市長)之姿投入市議員選舉。 其在2010年的直轄市議員選舉中以第一高票當選新北市第三選區(三重、蘆洲)議員;而在2014年直轄市議員選舉中,李翁月娥女士在競爭激烈的選舉之中成為當選名單中得票數最少的議員。因此,筆者對這個有趣的落差產生興趣,進而想研究此落差發生的原因為何。 本論文的研究目的與設計,旨在探討是什麼原因改變了選民投票行為偏好,致使李翁月娥女士在民國99年以及民國103年的得票率出現極大的落差。本論文將以公民社會的觀點輔以(3+1)i模型來探討此現象。
The purpose of this research involves discovering the reason behind that changes the voters' behavior preference, resulting the big difference of Mrs Li Weng Yue Er's vote turnout between 2010 and 2014. This paper mainly focusing on Mrs Li Weng Yue Er, New Taipei City Parliamentary, election results that occured in 2014. She had been re-elected at whatever election she had participated in except the Township Mayor Election in 1998. After Taipei county's population overtook Taipei City's, the county had been upgraded to a city status named New Taipei City in 2000, Mrs Li Weng Yue Er ,last mayor of Luzhou at that present, announced her candidacy for City Council Election. While in Municipal Council election, Mrs Li Weng Yue Er overwhelmingly received the highest votes to become a member of the third constituency ( SanChong & Luzhou). However in the 2014 municipal Council election, she received the least number if votes among the elected candidates. This aroused my interest on studying the reason that caused such a big drop in the voters behavior.The papers will be complemented by views of civil society (3 + 1) i model to explore this phenomenon.