本文利用跨時性的資料檢視台灣地區選民政治信任感的持續與變遷,並分析政治信任感對選民投票行爲的影響。在2000年的總統大選之後,民衆對於政府的信任感是否持續不變或是因爲中央政府政權輪替而出現增加或是減少的趨勢?這些成因爲何?而政治信任對選民的投票行爲會有怎麼樣的影響?這些都將是本研究所想要探討的問題。本研究使用1992、1995、1998以及2001年四次立委選舉之後的面訪資料,來探討台灣地區選民政治信任感的分佈、影響選民政治信任感變動的因素以及政治信任感對其投票行爲的影響。 研究結果可以發現:在1992年到1998年期間,民衆的政治信任感逐步下降。而在2001年的立委選舉中,也就是在2000年總統大選之後,歷經政權和平轉移的台灣民衆其政治信任感有顯著的提昇。而影響選民政治信任感的因素中,除了選民對國民黨的認同外,在1992年與1998年期間,第一代選民、小學及以下敎育程度者以及國民黨的認同者,政治信任感較高。而民進黨或是新黨的認同者,政治信任感較低。同時,傾向獨立民衆,對於政府的政治信任感較低。當政權輪替之後,我們發現:在2001年時,選民的政治信任感較1998年提高,而民進黨認同者政治信任感也顯著提昇。不過,在此同時,國民黨認同者並沒有顯著下降。就影響選民在立法委員選舉中投票行爲的因素而言,選民的政治信任感愈高愈傾向支持執政黨,顯示民衆的政治信任感與其對執政黨的政治支持之間,有重要的關聯。
In this paper, we employ longitudinal data to explore the change and continuity of political trust among the electorate in Taiwan. After the 2000 presidential election, whether the distribution of political trust will follow the rotation of ruling power is our research interest. We also would like to explore which factors affect people's political trust, and how political trust might affect people's voting behavior. By employing 1992, 1995, 1998, and 2001 face-to face interviews after legislative elections, we are able to explore the change and continuity of people's political trust in Taiwan. From our findings, we showed that the distribution of people's political trust declined during 1992 and 1998. However, as the 2001 survey data showed, people's political trust rebounded after the 2000 presidential election. Among factors affected people's political trust, people's partisan preference toward the KMT, voters among the first generation, people with elementary school education were more likely to have higher level of political trust between 1992 and 1998. However, people with the DPP or the NP partisan preference were more likely to have lower level of political trust. After the 2000 presidential election, people with the DPP partisan preference changed their level of political trust, and became more likely to trust the ruling authorities. We also demonstrated that people with higher level of political trust were more likely to support the ruling party in the legislative elections.