分立政府與經濟表現：1992年至2006年台灣經驗的分析

Divided Government and Economic Performance: The Taiwan Experiences, 1992-2006

吳重禮(Chung-Li Wu)

《台灣政治學刊》 11卷2期 (2007/12) Pp. 53-91

https://doi.org/10.6683/TPSR.200712.11(2).53-91

摘要

2000年總統大選民進黨贏得勝選，取得中央政府執政權，我國中央層級政權首次進行政黨輪替，並產生「分立政府」(divided government)的體制型態。關於分立政府是否有礙於國家總體經濟表現，迄今仍是學界爭議的焦點。本研究以我國中央政府為分析對象，比較1992年至2000年國民黨執政的「一致政府」(unified government)時期，與2000年至2006年民進黨掌握行政權的分立政府時期，整體經濟表現是否具有顯著差異。變數檢定與實證結果顯示，政府體制、實質政府支出，以及銀行利率等變數，對於國民生產毛額的變動具有顯著影響。就政府體制的影響來說，本文推論，在一致政府時期，政府整體施政較為順暢，因此促使國家經濟表現較佳；反之，在分立政府時期，由於府會僵局和政策滯塞，造成政府整體施政困境，使得經濟表現將受到負面影響。在結論中，本文摘述實證分析要點，並提出研究限制與未來研究方向。

關鍵字

分立政府 ； 經濟表現 ； 政黨政治 ； 政府體制 ； 時間序列分析

並列摘要

The Democratic Progressive Party won the 2000 presidential election in Taiwan and acquired the ruling power over the central government, while the Kuomintang still controlled maintained a majority in the Legislative Yuan. When there is divided government, since different political parties control the executive and legislative branches, the operation of party government is weakened, as the two political institutions are in conflict with each other. This certainly makes responsible and efficient government an unattainable goal. However, the question concerning the consequence of divided government-does the national economy have poorer performance under divided government?-remains contentious. This study examines the differences in macroeconomic performance between the 1992-2000 unified government and the 2000-2006 divided government by estimating the impacts of the political and economic determinants on Taiwan's gross national product (GNP). The findings indicate that the variables of the government system, government expenditures, and interest rates have significant effects on Taiwan's GNP. The evidence confirms the assumption that distinct forms of government can influence the efficiency of governance, i.e., divided government tends to result in policy gridlock and political stalemate between the executive and legislative branches and consequently this is likely to negatively affect macroeconomic performance, and vice versa. In concluding, the key findings are reviewed, the limitations of this study are outlined and suggestions are provided for future research.

並列關鍵字

divided government ； economic performance ； party politics ； government system ； time series analysis

參考文獻

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中國時報(2005/09/19)

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