分析師研究報告實用性之探究：以半導體業及平面顯示器業為例

分析師研究報告包括盈餘預測、股票推薦、目標價及分析師對該公司前景之論述，許多投資人根據分析師的股票推薦及目標價進行投資決策。因分析師研究報告對投資人決策有重要的影響，本研究目的係探究臺灣本土及外資分析師研究報告之實用性。本研究以半導體及平面顯示器產業中54家上市櫃公司為樣本，樣本期間2020年1月至2021年7月。本研究使用CMoney資料庫及自行蒐集之30家內外資券商分析師報告，檢視分析師預測目標價在不同期間達成情形。此外，本研究檢視不同研究報告股票推薦是否具有相同的意涵。本研究結果顯示，外資或本土券商分析師，發布負向股票推薦評等報告的比率均低。相較於外資分析師，本土券商負向評等報告的目標價達成率較高。研究結果亦顯示，當內外資分析師發佈正向股票推薦評等報告且看法一致，其目標價達成率較高。股票推薦評等改變報告分析顯示，降評的股票推薦報告目標價在3個月的達成率較高，顯示投資人對負面訊息的短期反應較大。此外，本研究發現分析師對於股票推薦評等的定義並不一致，投資人需審慎閱讀研究報告，而非僅根據股票推薦評等進行投資決策。

關鍵字

分析師報告；目標價；股票推薦評等

並列摘要

Analyst reports include earnings forecasts, stock recommendations, target prices, and analysts’ comments on the company’s prospects. Many investors make investment decisions based on analysts’ stock recommendations and target prices. Because analyst reports have important impacts on investors’ decisions, the purpose of this study is to investigate the practicability of Taiwanese and foreign analysts' reports. This study uses 54 listed companies in the semiconductor and flat-panel display industries as samples. The sample period is from January 2020 to July 2021. This study investigates whether analysts’ target prices in different periods are achieved by using CMoney database and self-collected analyst reports of 30 domestic and foreign securities firms. Furthermore, this study examines whether stock recommendations in different research reports have the same meaning. The results indicate that the percentage of foreign or local brokerage analysts to issue negative stock recommendation is low. Compared with foreign analysts, local securities companies have a higher target price achievement rate in negative rating reports. The results also show that the percentage of achieving target prices is higher when domestic and foreign analysts issue a positive stock recommendation rating report and have similar opinions. The results of the stock recommendation change show that the target price achievement rate in three month period is higher when analysts downgrade the stock recommendations. The results suggest that investors’ response to negative news is larger in the short term. Moreover, this study finds that analysts’ definitions of stock recommendation ratings are inconsistent. Investors should read research reports carefully, rather than making investment decisions only based on stock recommendation ratings.