以系統思考探討全跨預鑄吊裝工法供應鏈模型之研究－以高鐵C260標上部橋梁結構為例

A Study of System Dynamic Based FPLM Supply Chain Model

潘乃欣(Nai-Hsin Pan) ； 林敬祥(Ching-Hsiang Lin) ； 陳奎言(Kuei-Yen Chan)

《中國土木水利工程學刊》 21卷3期 (2009/09) Pp. 247-259

https://doi.org/10.6652/JoCICHE.200909_21(3).0002

摘要

全跨預鑄吊裝工法針對所使用的生產設備不同、預鑄場動線規劃、預力施拉方式不同等考慮因素眾多，每一個考慮因素都彼此影響，會造成成本的估算不易與影響日後生產、吊裝的進行。預鑄場與上游原料供應商（如水泥、鋼筋、骨材等）之間的採購行為也會隨著施工進度情形而呈現動態變化。本研究主要在探討預鑄場從上游供應商取得原料、加工、完成箱型梁到提供現場吊裝作業這之間供應鏈之行為。另外，本研究以跳脫傳統靜態思考方式，改以系統動態學動態回饋環路的觀念，配合系統動態軟體『PowerSim』建立其供應鏈模型，為決策者提供一電腦輔助工具，簡化複雜的數學計算，以利使用者快速模擬並決策。最後再針對系統模型各影響因子進行敏感度分析，找出對整體系統影響較大之關鍵因子，並探討其因子影響完工工期與成本之程度。

關鍵字

系統動態 ； 專案管理 ； 全跨預鑄吊裝工法

並列摘要

FPLM which will be implemented successfully or not involves lots of factors, such as production facilities, circulation planning of the precast factory, elongation of pre-stress, etc. Every factor affects each other and the influence will result in difficulties of cost estimation, production and launching performance. With the progress of the construction, the procurement behavior of the pre-cast factory from its raw materials suppliers exhibits a dynamic change. This study aims to explore the behavior pattern of the supply chain starting from materials procurement, processing, final production of box girder to launching engineering. Furthermore, the method adopted in this study is a breakthrough from the traditional way of static thinking mode into a concept of dynamic feedback loop of System Dynamics. A supply chain model established by utilizing a system dynamic software, ”PowerSim” will thus provide the decision maker with a computer aided tool to simplify complicated mathematic calculation and enables the users to make fast simulation and decisions. Finally, by performing a sensitivity analysis on various influential factors of the system model, this study intends to find the key factors which pose more influence on the system, and to further explore the degree of influence the key factors have on the completion date and the cost of the project.

並列關鍵字

system dynamic ； project management ； FPLM