NOAA衛星資料預測氣象乾旱之可行性研究

Feasibility Study on Prediction of Drought Weather Based on NOAA Satellite Data

陳朝圳(Chaur-Tzuhn Chen) ； 李錦育(Ching-Yuh Lee) ； 楊剛(G. Yang)

《航測及遙測學刊》 7卷2期 (2002/06) Pp. 75-86

https://doi.org/10.6574/JPRS.2002.7(2).5

摘要

利用歷年來高屏地區氣象站之觀測資料，及農政單位所公佈之旱災災情資料，建立旱災災情資料庫；利用時間序列ARIMA，建立降雨量之時間序列模式；另以1998-2000年之每週NOAA衛星影像資料，計算乾旱指標（Drought Index, DI），利用三年間之乾旱資料，配合降雨量時間序列模式，分別探討植生在乾旱情況下，乾早指標之時間變化為了解不同乾旱狀態下，植物光譜反射特性之差異，本研究以甘庶及甘藷二種作物為材料，利用光譜儀，探討不乾旱狀態下，植物之光譜反射特性。結果顯示以NOAA衛星所計算之乾旱指標，於植物缺水三個月後，才會呈現顯著的差異；乾旱指標與降雨量之季節呈顯著相關，顯示當乾旱發生時， NOAA衛星影像可敏感反映乾旱的危害程度，而由控制試驗亦證明作物在不同乾旱狀況下，其葉部之光譜反射特性具有顯著性差異。本研究所建立之氣象乾早年、月循環變化資訊，為未來建立乾旱監測系統之重要工作。

關鍵字

時間序列 ； 乾旱指標 ； NOAA衛星

並列摘要

A drought database has been established based on accumulated data of the Kao-Ping Meteorological Station and drought information published by the agricultural administrative agencies. A time-series analysis model, ARIMA, was used in rainfall time series analysis of the data. Two commonly seen crops of the area, sweet potatoes and sugar cane were selected for study of reflection spectrum variation due to the prevailing weather condition, more specifically by draught. A preliminary result showed that the drought indexes calculated from NOAA satellite images had responded to the water deficiency started 3 months ago. The drought index and seasonal variation of precipitation are highly correlated. When the drought started, NOAA crops image sensitively reflect different degree of drought danger. A controlled experimentation had also proved that characteristics of spectrum crop leaves reflected had significant differences between different moisture conditions. Drought cycles by years and by months derived from past meteorological data in this study may be a valuable reference to the future drought monitoring system.

並列關鍵字

Time-series ； Drought Index ； NOAA satellite