北京2008年奧運會女子手球攻守技術之迴歸分析

The Regression Analysis on Women's Handball Attack/Defense Skills at Beijing 2008 Olympic Games

黃欽永(Ching-Yung Hwang)

《體育學報》 42卷2期 (2009/06) Pp. 81-93

https://doi.org/10.6222/pej.4202.200906.0706

摘要

Purpose: By using various regression analysis methods, this study delved into how different methods may have had different prediction about the attack/defense skills of the net game scores in women's handball games at Beijing 2008 Olympics Games; at the same time, there was a regression diagnosis undergoing to find the best predictive model. Besides, this study also compared the correlation between the regression analysis and the coaches' evaluations. Method: Based on the official records of women's handball competitions at Beijing 2008 Olympics Games, 18 attack/defense skills were chosen as variables and the net game scores were taken as (Y) to conduct stepwise regression analysis under the Mallow's C (P) and R^2 methods, comparing the difference between the variables chosen by the two methods. 25 national handball coaches were interviewed to share their professional evaluations on what competition skills may be crucial for the net game scores. Moreover, the Spearman rank correlation was used to see the correlation between the order of the chosen variables of the aggression analysis and the coaches' opinions. Results: The stepwise regression analysis and the Mallow's C (P) method had both entered 9 same variables, which could explain that the variance of the net game scores in the women's handball games was 70.6%. Of the 9 variables from the two methods, 8 were unanimous with the coach variables, and there was significant correlation between the variables entered by the two methods and the ones entered by the coaches (r(subscript s)=.91, t(subscript .975(7))=5.99, p＜.05). Conclusion: The 9 variables entered by the stepwise regression analysis and the Mallow's C (P) and R^2 methods are the best combination to predict the net game scores in women's handball games and provide very valuable evaluations.

關鍵字

手球 ； 女子手球 ； 攻守技術 ； 迴歸分析

並列摘要

Purpose: By using various regression analysis methods, this study delved into how different methods may have had different prediction about the attack/defense skills of the net game scores in women's handball games at Beijing 2008 Olympics Games; at the same time, there was a regression diagnosis undergoing to find the best predictive model. Besides, this study also compared the correlation between the regression analysis and the coaches' evaluations. Method: Based on the official records of women's handball competitions at Beijing 2008 Olympics Games, 18 attack/defense skills were chosen as variables and the net game scores were taken as (Y) to conduct stepwise regression analysis under the Mallow's C (P) and R^2 methods, comparing the difference between the variables chosen by the two methods. 25 national handball coaches were interviewed to share their professional evaluations on what competition skills may be crucial for the net game scores. Moreover, the Spearman rank correlation was used to see the correlation between the order of the chosen variables of the aggression analysis and the coaches' opinions. Results: The stepwise regression analysis and the Mallow's C (P) method had both entered 9 same variables, which could explain that the variance of the net game scores in the women's handball games was 70.6%. Of the 9 variables from the two methods, 8 were unanimous with the coach variables, and there was significant correlation between the variables entered by the two methods and the ones entered by the coaches (r(subscript s)=.91, t(subscript .975(7))=5.99, p＜.05). Conclusion: The 9 variables entered by the stepwise regression analysis and the Mallow's C (P) and R^2 methods are the best combination to predict the net game scores in women's handball games and provide very valuable evaluations.

並列關鍵字

handball ； women's handball ； attack/defense skills ； regression analysis

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