三合一大選選舉結果的整體分析

"Three-in-One" Elections in Taiwan: A General Analysis

周陽山(Yang-Sun Chou)

《臺灣民主季刊》 2卷4期 (2005/12) Pp. 127-134

https://doi.org/10.6448/TDQ.200512.0127

摘要

2005年12月3日台澎金馬各地的地方大選（簡稱「三合一選舉」）順利完成，在23席縣市長當中，國民黨得到14席，民進黨得到6席，親民黨、新黨和無黨籍則各占1席。若就政黨傾向和政治背景而論，泛藍軍共囊括17席，泛綠軍部份，卻僅有6席，其結果可說是「藍軍大勝，綠軍慘敗」。由各種選票數據分析，無論是在縣市長、鄉鎮市長、縣市議員，乃至立法院部分，均係處於「藍大於綠」的局面，民進黨在此次選後的敗局十分明顯。選後有關責任歸屬的民調顯示，有五成左右的選民，認為陳水扁總統應為此次民進黨敗選負最大的責任。同時，對陳水扁總統的滿意度，也創下他就任總統近六年來的最低點(21%)，不滿意度則高逾六成。此顯然係陳總統個人的嚴重信任危機。雖然民進黨主席蘇貞昌已為敗選負責而請辭，但認為他真正應該為此負責的人卻很少。由此可見，他的辭職反將為他的未來政治生涯，帶來新的契機。受訪的選民對於行政院長謝長廷應否為敗選負責，有相當紛歧的看法，但是認為「中央執政政績不佳」者，則幾近五成，認為內閣應改組者亦逾五成，足見謝長廷的表現不佳，對敗選也有其應負之責任。

關鍵字

選舉 ； 責任歸屬 ； 泛藍軍 ； 泛綠軍 ； 民主鞏固

並列摘要

Three local elections (three-in-one) for the city-county magistrates, town-township mayors; and county council members in Taiwan, Kinmen and Matsu were held on December 3, 2005. DPP, the ruling party, maintained only 6 seats among a total of 23 city mayors and county magistrates. On the other hand, the ”pan-blue parties” composed of the KMT, PFP and New Party held 17 cities and counties. The outcome of the election was a milestone for party competition since DPP's landslide victory in 2000. According to three major Taiwanese newspapers' post-election polls, most people believed that President Chen should take responsibility for DPP's defeat in these elections. However, the former DPP Chairman Su Cheng-chan was treated as a sacrifice for the party's failure. Premier Hsieh and his cabinet members also became the targets of accusation for their poor performance during the past several months. In this essay, the author will analyze the outcome of these elections, the performance of major party leaders and schemers; as well as the future of party competition and democratic consolidation in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

voting ； political responsibility ； pan-blue parties ； pan-green parties ； democratic consolidation