The Valuation and Demand Analysis of the Reverse Mortgage

逆向房貸之評價與需求分析

林左裕(Calvin Tso-Yu Lin) ； 黃泓智(Hong-Chih Huang) ； 楊博翔(Po-Hsiang Yang)

《評價學報》 5期 (2011/12) Pp. 1-34

https://doi.org/10.30073/JV.201112.0001

摘要

台灣人口老化之趨勢日趨顯著，根據2009年內政部的數據指出，我國六十五歲以上的老人佔總人口的10.6%，老化指數（老年人口／幼年人口之比值）為65%，雙雙創下歷史新高，在亞洲僅次於日本，可見國民在退休後的生活及照料問題將是往後政府與社會亟需重視之問題。如何解決因少子化及高齡化所衍生出的眾多社會問題與龐大的退休金負擔，係本研究積極思考之重點。有鑒於此，本研究針對「逆（反）向房屋抵押貸款（Reverse Mortgage, RM）」於台灣實行的可行性進行問卷調查，探討受訪者對申請此種貸款之意願程度。首先，運用「羅吉特迴歸」分析其中影響之顯著因子，結果顯示個人財產型態、有無子嗣、傳承遺產之價值觀等具有顯著性影響。本研究復採房價、利率與死亡率等模型，應用「模擬分析」，建立逆向房屋抵押貸款之基本定價模型，並推算可得之年金值，探求其是否符合潛在消費者需求，再針對貸款供給方所面臨之風險程度加以精算。本研究所得結論可供逆向房貸之放款金融機構一評價模型參考，並了解影響市場需求之相關因素。預期此類貸款除了可在日益嚴重的高齡化趨勢下提供一照料方式之資金來源外，更可在臺灣人民偏好「在宅老化（aging in place）」的趨勢下，提升老年生活品質。

關鍵字

反向房貸 ； 邏輯斯迴歸 ； 模擬分析 ； 所得替代率

並列摘要

With the continuously declining fertility rates and the increasing life expectancy, many countries have become the so-called ＂aging societies＂. To alleviate the financial stress of the government, numerous literature suggested that the implementation of Reverse Mortgage (RM) may improve the retiring life quality of the elderly. However, little attention has been given specifically to the feasibility of the application of RM and the pricing model in aging countries. This study thus conducted the questionnaire and collected the data in Taiwan to analyze the feasibility of reverse mortgage mechanism from both the demand and supply sides. First of all, we intend to locate the factors affecting the willingness to apply for RM for homeowners. The survey was analyzed through Logistic Regression Model. Second, we analyzed the ratio of Loan to Value (LTV) that reverse mortgage lenders willing to offer through the simulation model under a break-even hypothesis. Furthermore, the housing data from different metropolises of Taiwan was integrated to determine whether if the Income Replacement Ratio of RM (l RR-RM) could meet the basic needs of RM applicants. Results of this study provide lenders a pricing model for the reverse mortgage as well as the factors affecting the market demand. We also suggest that RM could satisfy the general needs of people in Taiwan under some conditions. Procedures conducted in this study may also provide precious insights for other aging countries. This paper suggests that the design of reverse mortgage under risk considerations could not only solve the emerging issues of aging societies, but also secure the retiring lives of the elderly and preserve their living qualities.

並列關鍵字

Reverse Mortgage ； Logistic Regression ； Simulation Analysis ； Income Replacement Ratio