中共的高技術局部戰爭能力之研究－以電子戰發展為例

The ability of high tech local war of PLA: with the view on development of electronic warfare

吳長錦(Chang-Chin Wu)

指導教授 ： 曾復生

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班/碩士(2005年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2005.00200

摘要

共軍認為代表現代「信息戰雛型」的波灣戰爭向人們展示出軍事電子技術是實現信息化的核心手段。隨著電子技術的快速發展，並廣泛滲透到軍事領域各個方面，使得現代電子戰已超越傳統的作戰手段，進而發展成為一種可採取大規模攻勢威懾對手和影響戰爭進程的軍事行動。於是其認為一體化電子情報偵察是實施積極信息攻擊的基礎；亦認為電子戰攻擊是「節點打擊、結構破壞」戰法的關鍵手段；電子防護是實施攻勢信息防護的有效手段，因此可知電子戰是集電子戰偵察、電子戰防護和電子攻擊等功能於一身的軟硬殺傷結合、攻防兼備的作戰手段。

因此本論文試圖以中共電子戰能力為窗口來探討其執行高技術局部戰爭能力的虛與實。首先由中共軍事戰略的演變的角度切入，導出中共的高技術局部戰爭的形成原因、內容及意涵，並藉闡明電子戰的定義，釐清電子戰與信息戰及高技術局部戰爭的關聯性。再經由文獻研究的方式探討中共電子戰的發展現況，並廣泛地從戰法與部隊編制、電子戰之裝備與能力發展、電子戰之人才與演訓現況，五個面向來探究中共電子戰發展的實況，接著以淨評估方法從各種影響中共電子戰能力發展優勢、弱點、未來機會及對我之威脅進行評估。最後將中共可能的犯台模式與電子戰能力相結合進行數學模糊理論的模糊綜合評估，以探究中共電子戰能力對其發動一場高技術局部戰爭的影響及其能力之虛實。

對於研究中共軍事變革與能力，本論文企圖提供了一個「系統化」的研究與評估方法，對於所研究之標的－中共電子戰，研究歸納出其電子戰可分為電子戰偵察、電子戰攻擊、電子戰防護等三項主要能力，對此三項能力進行「質性」的分析。以未來學之情境分析方式結合中共可能攻台模式，進行模糊綜合評估的「量化」分析，最後再對其未來發展潛力的各項因素進行研討。因此本論文對於中共的軍事變革的意圖、能力與潛力都有系統化的研究。

關鍵字

高技術局部戰爭 ； 電子戰 ； 信息戰 ； 軍事變革 ； 模糊綜合評估

並列摘要

PLA think Gulf War which represents” Information Warfare Model” shows people that military electronic technology is a core measure to achieve information warfare. Following high-speed development of electronic technology which extensively permeates through every military field, makes modern electronic warfare has got beyond traditional military fight, and then become a kind of a big scale military attack operation which can deter enemy and affects the process of war. So PLA think integrated electronic intelligence reconnaissance is the foundation of aggressive information attack, also believe electronic attack is the key measure of tactics “knot knock, structure destroy”. Hence, we can know electronic warfare is a combination of soft and hard killing, an operation measure integrated defense and offense, a comprehensive expression of electronic reconnaissance, electronic attack, electronic protection.

Therefore, this paper is trying to discuss the actual ability of high tech local war through the window of PLA electronic warfare ability. First, begin from discussion of evolution of military strategy, guide out the forming cause, content and meaning of high tech local war, then clarify the definition of electronic warfare, and the relation among electronic warfare, information warfare, and high tech local war. Second, use document approach to observe the present status of development of electronic warfare from five aspects, such as tactics, organization, equipments, talent development, and exercises, then use “net assessment” method to find out the weakness, strength, future opportunity, and threat. The last, combine the PLA invasion Taiwan model and electronic warfare ability to evaluate the true or false ability of PLA to launch a high tech local war using mathematics Fuzzy method.

As regard to research PLA military evolution ability, this paper is trying to provide a systematized method. Key point is to analyze the main research target－PLA electronic warfare , beak it down to three parts, such as electronic reconnaissance, electronic attack, electronic protection. Aim at these three abilities of electronic warfare, to process a qualitative analysis, and then using Scenario Analysis of future study, integrated with possible PLA invasion Taiwan model to execute a quantification analysis, the last, discuss the potential influence cause of future development. So, this paper shows the intention, abilities, and potential of PLA military evolution by systematized ways.

並列關鍵字

high tech local war ； electronic warfare ； information warfare ； RMA

參考文獻

78.喬良、王湘穗著，超限戰──對全球化時代戰爭與戰法的想定》北京：解放軍文藝出版社，1999年。

72.張雅君，世紀之交中共的軍事政策與亞太安全：防禦取向模糊性的探討，中國大陸研究（民88年3月）。

11.于有慧，後冷戰時代中共新安全觀的實踐與挑戰，<中國大陸研究>第44卷，第2期，90年2月。

65.楊念祖，中共軍事戰略的演進與未來發展的趨勢，台北：中國大陸研究，第42卷第10期，1999年。

68.葉自強，<中共武力攻臺新思維—二００一年中共「東山島」軍事演習>，陸軍學術月刊，第38卷第439期。