台灣國際觀光旅館成本效率及不確定需求對歇業之影響

1990年代，由於亞洲金融風暴的影響，台灣許多旅館遭遇到觀光人數的衰弱。如今，面對全球市場日趨激烈的競爭下，旅館經營者與行銷研究花費時間和精力在討論存活策略上，然而卻少有研究將焦點放在造成旅館歇業的因素為何。根據台灣交通部觀光局發行之1995年至2008年的國際觀光旅館營運分析報告書，本研究主要目的為探討成本效率和不確定需求對國際觀光旅館歇業的影響。刪除非市場因素歇業的國際觀光旅館後，研究樣本為70間國際觀光旅館，共計14年的非平衡縱橫資料( unbalanced panel data )，並採用Logit迴歸模型和Cox比例危險模型( Cox proportional hazards model )探討台灣國際觀光旅館之歇業決定因素。實證結果顯示不確定需求、多角化和旅館規模對旅館歇業有顯著地正相關，另一方面，HHI、服務比例、平均房價、員工產值和稅前獲利能力則對旅館歇業有顯著地負向影響，然而旅館的成本效率卻沒有達到統計上顯著的意義。

關鍵字

國際觀光旅館；成本效率；不確定需求；歇業； Logit迴歸模型； Cox比例危險模型

並列摘要

Many hotels in Taiwan suffer a decline in the number of tourist in the 1990s as the result of the Asian financial crisis. Nowadays, facing a growing competition in the global market, hotel managers and marketing research spend time and energy in discussing survival strategies. However, fewer studies put attention to discuss what factors cause the closure of hotels. Based the annual operating report of international tourism hotels in Taiwan during 1995~2008, the purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts of cost efficiency and uncertain demand on closure of international tourism hotels. After deleting the hotel’s closure resulting from non-market factors, an unbalanced panel data consists of 70 international tourism hotels over 14 years. I adopted Logit regression model and Cox proportional hazards model to explore the determinants of the closure of international tourism hotels in Taiwan. My empirical results show that uncertain demand, diversification and hotel size have significantly positive effects on the closure of hotels. On the other hand, the hotel’s closure is negatively associated with HHI, the proportion of service, average daily rate, average production value per employee and pre-tax profitability. Surprisingly, hotel’s cost efficiency does not reach statistic significance.