以往人口遷徙研究大多著重於區域間人口遷徙與經濟變數關係之分析,鮮少從總體面探討影響區域內部的人口遷徙行為。本研究認為一個地區的內部遷徙率愈高,代表潛在換屋家戶能較有效率透過居住環境改變來提升居住品質,達到「住者適其屋」的目的。本文從住宅市場供給、家戶住宅需求調整、以及房價負擔能力等不同角度,運用追蹤資料分析法(panel data analysis method),以台灣22個縣市26年(1982-2007)的橫斷面時間序列資料為研究範圍,探討影響不同縣市內部遷徙率差異的因素。實證結果顯示,住宅自有率、房價對內部遷徙率有顯著負向影響,有偶率、使用執照面積、空屋率、以及房價所得比對內部遷徙率則有顯著正向影響,且住宅自有率與有偶率是影響內部遷徙率最主要的因素,使用執照面積、空屋率、以及房價所得比與房價的影響力則相對較小。除此之外,住宅市場供給條件對主要都市的內部遷徙率有較大的影響,近年來主要都市內部遷徙率大幅下滑,可能是受到住宅市場供給條件之限制所導致。本研究進一步發現,各縣市不隨時間改變的區域特性對內部遷徙率皆有顯著的影響,都市化程度較高縣市及東部縣市的內部遷徙率明顯較其他縣市為高。特定年度的時間效果係數值對內部遷徙率亦有顯著影響,本研究透過時間效果捕捉市場景氣及住宅政策對內部遷徙率可能產生的影響,將有助於瞭解景氣及政策對家戶居住遷徙流動性的影響,期能對政府擬訂住宅、經濟及社會政策之參考。
Most past studies of household migration focus on inter-region migration yet ignore the behavior of the intra-region migration. We paper argues that higher intra-urban mobility rate implies more dissatisfactory households can improve their housing consumption through moving and achieve higher living quality. From housing supply, housing demand adjustment, and housing affordability perspectives, this paper uses panel data analysis to investigate the determinants of intra-urban mobility rates differences between cities and counties during 1982 to 2007 in Taiwan The empirical results revealed that homeownership rate has significant negative effect on intra-urban mobility rates, but share of marriage couples, new construction number, vacancy rate, and house-price-to-income ratio have significant positive effects on intra-urban mobility rates. We also find that the influences of homeownership rate and share of marriage couples on intra-urban mobility rates are much higher than other variables. Beside, the coefficients of individual-effect are all significant at 1% level, the major cities and eastern region cities have higher intra-urban mobility rates than others. The coefficients of time-effect show that intra-urban migration rates will also be influences by macroeconomic factors, real estate cycles, and government policies.