- 期刊
PERIODICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF SHIPBUILDING MARKET ACTIVITY: A WAVELET ANALYSIS
摘要
Shipbuilding, a significant sector of the international shipping market, shows fluctuations and periodicity typical of variations in supply and demand. However, it takes a significant amount of time to build a ship, and the influencing factors are complex. Therefore, attempts to understand the market's fluctuations by directly analyzing these influencing factors suffer from high inaccuracy, necessitating a quantitative analysis of shipbuilding's periodic features. In this paper, we used wavelet analysis, an efficient way to analyze time series data, to analyze the unit price of a Panamax bulk ship's compensated gross tonnage and get the periodical features of the market. Choosing a significantly periodic wavelet coefficient curve yields three different cycle lengths: a 1-year seasonal cycle, a 3.5-year short-term cycle, and a 13-year medium-to-long-term cycle. Finally, we analyzed the accumulated wavelet coefficient curve, and forecasted that the market should reach its next prosperity phase around 2023 in the medium-to-long-term cycle. The present study is in the direct interest of maritime practitioners, because it helps to more precisely forecast shipbuilding market fluctuations, allowing them to make informed decisions.
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