航空運輸業納入歐盟排放交易體系對臺灣經濟之影響分析

Economic Impact Analysis of Including Aviation into the EU Emission Trading Scheme on Taiwan's Economy

李叢禎(Tsung-Chen Lee) ； 陳奕緻(Yi-Chih Chen)

《農業與資源經濟》 8卷2期 (2014/12) Pp. 71-100

摘要

全球化促使國際運輸產業快速擴張與成長，國際運輸業的溫室氣體排放日益受到關注。有鑑於此，歐盟決定自2012年起，將航空運輸業納入歐盟排放交易體系之管制對象，所有起降於歐盟境內的各國班機均受此管制規範。由於歐盟為臺灣的主要貿易對于國，航空運輸在雙邊商品貿易及提供商旅服務上扮演至為關鍵的角色，故此一制度的實施勢必會透過國際貿易之管道，對臺灣經濟體系造成影響。本文使用多地區、多部門可計算一般均衡模型一「全球貿易分析模型（Global Trade Analysis Project, GTAP）」進行分析，探討歐盟將航空運輸業納入排放交易體系後，對臺灣的國內生產毛額、產業產出及與歐盟的雙邊貿易之影響。本文結果顯示，航空運輸業納入歐盟排放交易體系對臺灣的國內生產毛額僅有微量的負向效果，即使在高排放權價格（€80／噸CO_2）的情境下，臺灣的國內生產毛額僅下降0.0097%，相當於38.195百萬美元之損失;各產業之實質產出變動亦不顯著，所有產業中以航空運輸業的產出下降幅度最大（0.826%的實質產出減少，相當於52.195百萬美元的損失）；在臺灣與歐盟國家間的貿易流量部分，臺灣出口變動幅度大於進口變動幅度，其中又以對德國的出口值下降最多，而由於電子電機產品為高度仰賴航空運輸的高單價商品，因此其出口受到相對較大的衝擊。

關鍵字

歐盟排放交易 ； 航空運輸業 ； 可計算一般均衡分析 ； 全球貿易分析模型

並列摘要

International aviation has been recognized as a potential main source of CO_2 emissions due to its rapid expansion as well as future growth caused by globalization. In view of this, the European Union (EU) unilaterally decides to incorporate aviation sector in the EU-ETS. Starting from 2012, aircraft operators need to surrender carbon emission allowances for all domestic and international flights landing at and departing from the EU airports. Given the fact that the EU is a major trading partner of Taiwan, international aviation plays an important role in terms of passenger travel and commodity trade. Therefore, the inclusion of aviation industry into the EU-ETS will affect Taiwanese economy through the channel of international trade. This paper applies a multi-region, multi-sector CGE model, named Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), to estimate the impacts of including the aviation industry into the EU-ETS on Taiwan's economy. Based on our simulation results, inclusion of aviation into the EU-ETS has negligible negative effects on Taiwan's gross domestic product (GDP). Even under the scenario of high carbon price €80/tCO_2, the GDP merely decreases 0.0097% (equivalent to a loss of US $38.195 millions). The changes in industrial real output are insignificant as well. The air transport sector has the most significant decrease in real output (0.826% real output reduction, equivalent to a loss of US $52.1949 millions). Furthermore, the changes in Taiwan's exports are higher than those in imports. The exports to Germany decrease most. In particular, there is a relatively significant impact on the exports of electronic equipment because these products are mainly shipped by air freight.

並列關鍵字

The European Union emissions trading system ； Aviation industry ； Computable general equilibrium analysis ； Global Trade Analysis Project