Translated Titles

Analyses of Cost Effectiveness and Trading Price under Different Alliances of Countries with Carbon Emission Trading Scheme





Key Words

邊際減量成本 ; 社會成本 ; 初始排放權分配 ; 影子價格模型 ; 方向產出距離函數 ; 長期追蹤資料 ; 固定效果模型 ; marginal abatement cost ; social cost ; initial endowment ; shadow price model ; directional output distance function ; panel data ; fixed effect model



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Chinese Abstract

近年來因全球暖化、氣候變遷帶來許多災害,直接與間接影響到人類的生存環境,於是世界各國紛紛注意到進行二氧化碳減量的重要性,更於1997年在日本京都所舉行的第三次締約國大會決議通過具有約束力之「京都議定書」(Kyoto Protocol),以進行控制溫室氣體的排放,而其中的三種減量機制中的排放權交易更是各政府或學者所十分關注的課題。 因此,本研究以影子價格模型為基礎,估算出各國以社會成本為詮釋之二氧化碳邊際減量成本,進而建構未來三種不同時間點之碳排放權交易情境,在2010年將分別設定EU與京都議定書之附件B國家兩個集團內國家進行排放權交易。在2020年乃設定EU、ASEAN、USAN、APEC與OECD五個組織,由組織內國家進行排放權交易來達到減量二氧化碳的目標。最後2030年則想像全世界國家一起進行排放權交易。而依據資料的完整性、可信度與可及性來進行樣本國的篩選,以及包含上述各國際組織與結盟團體之會員國,最後選用107國在1990至2005年間之長期追蹤資料,依此分析各種不同情境設定下之均衡交易價格與總減量成本,並比較透過排放權交易機制之總減量成本與各國單獨直接減量之總成本,以印證排放權交易制度所能發揮之成本有效性。 實證結果發現以社會成本做詮釋之邊際減量成本進行交易,則各種交易情境皆顯示經濟發展程度愈高的國家,邊際減量成本愈大,而在交易市場上為買方。此外,從不同情境的比較可以發現,經濟發展程度愈高的國家所組成之結盟團體,其交易價格愈高。最後,比較各情境下交易制度與直接減量所付出之總成本的大小,發現不論是何種情境,實行排放權交易制度所付出之總成本均較直接減量來得低。且若該組織內各國的邊際減量成本相差愈大,則交易制度中成本有效性的優點將更明顯,亦即若能將參與交易的國家數涵蓋各種不同經濟發展程度的國家時,此時實行交易制度所付出之總成本,將會比只有同一經濟發展程度國家實行交易制度的總成本來得低。

English Abstract

Concern about global warming and climate change has led to the Kyoto Protocol commitment in 1997, which enforces the mandatory greenhouse gas, with as the major gas, emission reduction to the average of 5.2% below 1990 level for industrialized in 2008 to 2012. Emission trading scheme is an abatement mechanism listed in the Kyoto Protocol. This instrument has been applied to the management of air pollutions, water resources, and many other natural resources. So as it is applied to the management of the emission. The purpose of this study is by applying the shadow pricing model to estimate the marginal abatement cost of with the measurement of the gain and loss of gross national product, and then to construct emission trading scenarios for three time points. The emission trading scenario is then applied to the countries of EU and Annex B countries of Kyoto Protocol in 2010. While move further to the year of 2020, emission trading among alliance of EU, ASEAN, USAN, APEC, or OECD is simulated. Emission trading of all countries for all the countries in the world is a scenario designed for the year of 2030. The total costs to achieve certain emission reduction target arranged by the international agreement via various alliance scenarios described above are then estimated and computed. Data for 107 countries for the year of 1990 to 2005 are collected for such purpose. The results have demonstrated that countries with higher level of economic development lead to have higher marginal abatement cost of , and these countries are the buyers in the trading market. According to the analysis of different trading scenarios, alliances of countries with high level of economic development will result in high trading prices. Moreover, the total costs with employing the emission trading scheme is lower than that without the emission trading scheme in any emission trading scenarios. Cost effectiveness does reveal from all scenarios designed above while the comparison is made between the emission trading scheme and direct reduction mechanism. The saving of the total emission reduction costs from the emission trading mechanisms is significant while the marginal abatement costs among the countries are essential.

Topic Category 生物資源暨農學院 > 農業經濟學研究所
生物農學 > 農業
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