行政首長施政滿意度的影響性分析─東亞國家的比較

行政首長的施政滿意度是現代民主國家重要的意見回饋機制，不但攸關行政首長連任的勝算，同時也影響政策推動是否順利，在美國學界早已引起相當廣泛的研究，但此研究領域在國內尚在起步階段。本文嘗試以分量迴歸模型分析東亞民主化調查的資料，來檢驗可能影響東亞各國施政滿意度的因素。本文研究發現，民主化程度、經濟環境、個人條件等因素均會對施政滿意度的起伏造成影響，且在分量迴歸的分析之下，本文發現對行政首長執政滿意度有負面影響的貪腐程度評價，主要發生在對行政首長的執政較不滿意的民眾身上，而當民眾對於行政首長的滿意度轉為較認同時，影響滿意度的主要因素則轉變為具有正面影響的經濟環境與行政信任評價因素。

關鍵字

分量迴歸；民主化程度；東亞；施政滿意度；貪腐程度

並列摘要

Public satisfaction with the administrative heads is an important feedback mechanism in a modern democratic country, not only for winning the reelections, but also for smoothing the public policy implementation. It has been widely researched academically in the United States, but is still in its early stage in Taiwan. This study aims to analyze data of East Asian democracy by using a quantile regression model and to examine any possible factors that may affect public opinion polls in East Asian countries.This study finds that factors such as the degree of democracy, economic environments and personal attributes can affect the fluctuation of public satisfaction towards public policy implementation. Under the analysis of the quantile regression, this study finds that the degree to which corruption is perceived can negatively impact public satisfaction with the administrative heads when the public is not satisfied with the performance of these administrative heads. However, when the public is content with these administrative heads' performance, the factors that affect public satisfaction are changed to economic environments and administrative trust that can positively impact public satisfaction with the performance of these administrative heads.