東亞國家之政治體制選擇偏好：一般公民、政治菁英與地緣政治面向之分析

Preferences of Political Regime in East Asian Countries: An Analysis Based on the Perspectives of Citizens, Political Elites and Geopolitics

吳思緯(Wu Szu-Wei)

指導教授 ： 陳文政

國立臺灣師範大學/國際與社會科學學院/東亞學系/博士(2021年)

https://doi.org/10.6345/NTNU202200001

摘要

本研究探討影響東亞政治體制選擇的三個面向：一般公民、政治菁英和地緣政治，結合量化和質化研究方法，先透過民主化理論和政治支持理論引導，再回顧過往相關研究之方向與成果，蒐集具代表性的數據資料以統計、文字探勘與地理資訊系統應用軟體進行處理，再將所得之研究成果以質性方法深入分析詮釋。
首先，就東亞一般公民面向而言，本研究聚焦於重新檢證民主化理論，結果發現：在人口統計學變項之年齡與教育程度上，愈年長者愈支持民主、教育程度愈高者愈支持民主，對於民主化理論還是相對有解釋力的；另外在政治學變項上，對本國民主體制之認知愈高者愈支持民主，也對於民主化理論是相對有解釋力的；而人口統計學之性別變項與社會學變項之經濟條件，則對於民主化理論較無解釋力。
其次，就政治菁英面向而言，本研究聚焦於東亞華語文化圈下三個政治體制歧異的國家(台灣、中國大陸、新加坡)，針對政治菁英紛雜而又相似的政治類公開文稿特徵進行分析，結果發現：三國政治菁英皆強調經濟治理、重視對美關係、呼籲團結；中國大陸與台灣政治菁英從不同出發點皆重視民主；中國大陸與新加坡政治菁英皆因治理而強調多元文化價值；台灣與新加坡政治菁英皆因小國背景而提倡與國際社會的聯結。是以，本文可以發現三國政治菁英皆對民主政治體制擁有相當偏好，但在內涵上台灣政治菁英的民主偏好與自由有更強的聯結，中國大陸與新加坡政治菁英就呈現民主、治理與協調之間的融合關係。
再者，就地緣政治面向而言，本研究爬梳美、中競逐關係下的地緣政治現況，透過空間性的資料展示，描繪出東亞的發展已經不是一味遵循西方模式，中國路徑逐漸吸引東亞國家，牽引東亞國家走向西方式自由民主之外的另一種選擇。
最後，本研究針對東亞前典範時期之典範競爭概念進行分析，回顧不同政治體制各自論述之內涵與其在東亞情境下的不同表現與意義，進一步導出在未來的動態發展場域下，東亞地區基於規範主義式微將出現的區域合作以及從價值追求到聯盟爭霸的政治現實。

關鍵字

政治體制 ； 東亞 ； 民主化 ； 中國路徑 ； 典範競爭

並列摘要

This study explores three dimensions that influence the preferences of political regime in East Asian countries: citizens, political elites, and geopolitics through combining quantitative and qualitative methods, and proceeded by the following steps: First, it delved into theories of democratization and political support, and reviewed the existing literature. Second, the author collected representative data, and proceeded them with statistics, text mining and geographic information system application software. Third, the research employed qualitative method to analyze and interpret the research results.
Some findings have been made. Firstly, from the perspectives of citizens, focusing on re-examination of the democratization theory, the results indicate that: the age and educational level are positively related with the relevant literature to support of democracy, meaning that the higher the age and education level, the more support for the democracy; and the awareness of the degree of democracy in one's own country is positively co-related with the literature to support of democracy, illustrating the higher awareness of democracy in one's own country, the more support for democracy; however, gender and economic conditions are less accorded with the literature related to support of democracy.
Secondly, in terms of political elites, this research focuses on the three countries with different political regimes in the Chinese cultural circle of East Asia. Through analyzing the public governmental scripts, this research discovered that economic governance, the relationship with the United States as an objective focus, and the calling for unity are the common ground for the elites in the three countries. On the other hand, China and Taiwan have a strong emphasis on democracy but from different starting points, while China and Singapore emphasize the value of multiculturalism because of its governance, and Taiwan and Singapore advocate the connection with the international community due to the size of the regime. Therefore, the political elites within three regimes share a preference for the democratic system, while Taiwan is more inclined to a deeper connection with freedom and China and Singapore lean toward a harmony between democracy, governance and coordination.
Thirdly, in terms of geopolitics, this research finds that Chinese paradigm has become more attractive to East Asian countries. Through spatial data display approach, the paper illustrates that East Asian development no longer strictly follows the western model, and that of China has become an attraction as an alternative to western democracy.
Lastly, through reviewing the connotation of the various political systems in East Asian context and the analysis of paradigmatic competition in pre-paradigm period of East Asia, this research further concludes that there will be regional cooperation and political reality from the pursuit of value to the competition for the regional hegemony in the future.

並列關鍵字

Political Regime ； East Asia ； Democratization ； Chinese Paradigm ； Paradigmatic Competition

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