試論中美發動軍事衝突的要件：國家權力差距或不滿意

The Necessary Conditions for China and the U.S. to Initiate Militarized Conflicts: Power Gap or Dissatisfaction

廖小娟(Hsiao-chuan Liao)

《政治學報》 62期 (2016/12) Pp. 1-24

https://doi.org/10.6229/CPSR.2016.62.01

摘要

中國大陸的崛起不僅牽動東亞區域內權力重分配的態勢，也影響了全球各大國之間的互動。世界霸權─美國─如何處理與面對中國大陸的崛起和可能的爭霸，也暗示著另一次世界大戰的可能性。權力平衡理論認為只有國家間權力均衡，國際和平方能維持；權力轉移理論則提出當中國大陸的權力將要超越美國之時，中美軍事衝突亦會隨之發生，並且權力的分配雖提供了衝突發生的機會，發動軍事衝突則與國家對彼此的不滿意息息相關。本文藉由布林演算法比較中國大陸與美國在權力比、國家不滿意、地緣關係、政體、與最後發動軍事衝突間的關係，找出中國大陸與美國各自發動不同程度軍事衝突的要件。本文發現當中國大陸和美國與對手國綜合國力不相近時，更容易發動軍事衝突，尤其是綜合國力的優勢更是中國大陸發動軍事衝突的充分條件。而中國大陸發動戰爭時，除了與對手的聯盟組成不同，直接表達不滿意也是其戰爭的必要條件。另一方面，美國則是未持修正態度下，與對手聯盟組成不相似都是發動戰爭的必要條件，擁有核武則是其發動軍事衝突的充分條件。據此，本文支持權力平衡理論的看法，認為中美在優勢下較容易發動軍事衝突，同時印證聯盟的組成不相似和表達不滿意都是中美兩國可能發動軍事衝突的強烈信號。

關鍵字

權力比 ； 國家不滿意 ； 發動軍事衝突 ； 權力轉移理論 ； 權力平衡理論

並列摘要

The rise of China has not only affected the power distribution in East Asia, but also influenced the interactions among major states. How the United States as the global hegemony deals with a rising China, and how the potential competition for dominance unfolds will dictate the likelihood of another major war. From the perspective of realism, the struggle for power among states is inevitable. The balance-of-power theory asserts that international peace results from the power balance among states, while the power transition theory argues that war happens when the gap among states' power shrinks. Furthermore, power distribution may provide only opportunities for conflict, but it is state dissatisfaction that actually triggers conflict. This article compares the impacts of power gap, state dissatisfaction together with other factors, such as geopolitics and regime, on the initiation by China and the U.S. of militarized conflicts. The comparison is methodologically based on Boolean algebra which induces the necessary conditions for them to initiate conflicts. The results show that China and the U.S. are more likely to initiate conflicts when their powers are not in parity with their opponents. In particular, power superiority is a sufficient condition for China to initiate conflicts. Dissimilarity of alliance portfolios and expression of direct dissatisfaction are two necessary conditions for China to wage wars. In contrast, the necessary conditions for war initiation by the U.S. are non-revisionism and dissimilarity of alliance portfolios. Equipping nuclear capability is sufficient for the U.S. to take militarized actions. These findings lend more support for the balance of- power theory than the power transition theory, in terms of war initiation. Moreover, the findings also demonstrate that dissimilarity of alliance portfolios and expressions of state dissatisfaction are both key to war initiation by China and the U.S.

並列關鍵字

Power Gap ； State Dissatisfaction ； Conflict Initiation ； Power Transition Theory ； Balance-of-Power Theory

參考文獻

王緝思、徐輝(2005)。中美危機行為比較分析。美國研究。19(2)，22-46。

包宗和編(2011)。國際關係理論。臺北:五南圖書。

甘逸驊(2008)。歐盟與美國的權力關係：「柔性平衡」的適用性。問題與研究。47(2)，1-24。

向駿編(2006)。2050中國第一？權力轉移理論下的美中臺關係之迷思。臺北:博揚文化。

李英明(2004)。國際關係理論的啟蒙與反思。臺北:揚智文化。