政黨實力、政治制度以及半總統制下政黨投入總統大選的決定

Party Size, Political Institutions, and Parties' Decisions to Enter Presidential Elections in Smi-Presidentialism

李鳳玉(Feng-yu Lee)

《政治學報》 65期 (2018/06) Pp. 81-107

https://doi.org/10.6229/CPSR.201806_65.0003

摘要

在民主國家中，政黨是否參與總統大選，會影響到總統與國會大選的政黨體系，也會影響到選民是否能做出有效的投票決定，並進一步影響到政府體制與民主制度的運作，影響深遠不言而喻。本文希望透過對半總統制民主國家的比較分析，探討政黨大小、總統的選舉制度、同時選舉以及半總統制次類型如何影響政黨投入總統大選的機率。本文發現，絕對多數決制使政黨有更高的機率投入總統大選；同時選舉只對大黨參選機率的提升有影響；而半總統制次類型與政黨大小的效果則存在交互作用。在增加大黨與小黨參選機率的部分，半總統制次類型的影響不大，但半總統制次類型的效果會因政黨大小的不同，而有顯著的不同。相對的，在總理總統制之下，相對於小黨，大黨參選的機率較高；在總統議會制之下，大黨與小黨的參選機率則差不多；政黨大小的效果會因為半總統制次類型的不同，而有顯著的不同。

關鍵字

總統選舉 ； 選舉制度 ； 同時選舉 ； 半總統制 ； 政黨大小

並列摘要

In democracies, whether parties enter the presidential race affects presidential and legislative party systems, and influences whether voters can identify potential presidents and make an efficient choice. Presidential and legislative party systems determine greatly the nature of government in semi-presidential democracies. To explore the effects of party size, presidential electoral systems, concurrent elections, and semi-presidential subtypes on parties' decisions to enter the presidential race, the author analyzes an original data set of all semi-presidential democracies. She finds that majoritarian electoral systems increase the probability that parties will enter the presidential race, that concurrent elections increase the probability that only large parties will do so, and that the effects of semi-presidential subtypes and party size are conditioned by each other. While semi-presidential subtypes do not influence the probability that large and small parties will enter the presidential race, the empirical evidence suggests that the effects of semi-presidential systems are conditioned by party size. As to the effects of party size, in premier-presidential systems, large parties are more likely to enter the presidential race, while in presidential-parliamentary systems, all parties are similarly likely to do so. The empirical evidence also proves that the effects of party size are conditioned by semi-presidential subtypes.

並列關鍵字

Presidential Election ； Electoral System ； Concurrent Election ； Semi-Presidentialism ； Party Size

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