家庭所得相對剝奪與生育間之關聯分析

The Relationship between Relative Deprivation and Birth

高孟莓(Meng-Mei Kao)

指導教授 ： 劉彩卿

國立臺北大學/公共事務學院/財政學系/碩士(2012年)

摘要

各國近年人口出生率大幅降低，根據美國中央情報局統計資料顯示，無論在已開發國家或是開發中國家，臺灣的生育率都是最低的。而臺灣近年所得分配情況惡化，隨著貧富差距的擴大，個體與個體之間可能出現相互比較或是效仿的示範效果，所得較低的族群可能引發負面心理感受，此種感受可能包括憎恨、嫉妒及缺乏信心等，而缺乏信心可能使父母不敢或不願意生育小孩。本研究主要目的為探討臺灣是否會因為所得分配惡化所引起的相對剝奪感而影響到父母的生育行為。
　　本研究參考Hey and Lambert（1980）及Yitzhaki（1979）的相對剝奪感指數，探討婦女的生育意願及其實際生育決策，採用民國93年台灣地區「第九次家庭與生育力研究調查」。本文使用兩部模型法（Two-part model），首先使用羅吉斯迴歸討論影響婦女生育意願的因素，再使用負二項分配探討影響有生育意願的婦女其實際生育子女個數之因素為何。
　　迴歸結果顯示，相對剝奪感對生育意願呈現負向顯著，亦即貧富差距擴大的情況下，相對所得處於劣勢的家戶所產生的相對剝奪感，使該戶降低生育意願。但對實際生育個數則並未顯著，因此無法說明相對剝奪感確實會影響家戶的實際生育決策。
　　要提振生育率，首先應讓婦女的生育意願提升。由於相對剝奪感受會影響到婦女的生育意願，同時，相對剝奪感反映出社會的所得分配差異情況。因此政府應透過租稅政策及社會福利補貼等，改善相對剝奪感受以提高生育意願，並可增進整體社會福祉。

關鍵字

生育 ； 相對剝奪感 ； 兩部模型法

並列摘要

The fertility has been significantly decreasing during the recent years. The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency’s statistics showed that the Taiwan’s fertility rate is the lowest both in the developed countries or developing countries. The trend of income distribution in Taiwan has been deteriorating during the past two decades. The individual may appear the demonstration effect such as being compared with or following the other one, with the expansion of the gap between rich and poor. The group gaining the lower income may cause a negative sense, this kind of sense may include animosity, envy and lack of confidence…etc. The lack of confidence will make parents dare not or unwilling to have children. The objective of this paper was to examine whether there is an association between relative deprivation and birth.
The Hey and Lambert’s and Yitzhaki’s index was applied to quantify the relative deprivation. Birth were grouped into two parts: willing and real decision. Data were selected in the ninth time of Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice of Contraception. This paper used Two-part model to explore birth. First, used logistic regression to discuss the factors that affect women’s desiring to have children, then used negative binomial regression to investigate the influence of how many children will women who want to having children to have.
The result showed that relative deprivation has a negative significant effect on the willing to birth. This indicated that people who have higher relative deprivation tented to have no desiring to have children. But relative deprivation has no significant effect on the birth decision of the women who want to having children will make. Therefore we couldn’t explain the relative deprivation does affect the birth decision-making.
To boost the fertility rate, we should enhance women’s birth willing first. Relative deprivation will influence women’s desiring to have children or not, in the meanwhile, relative deprivation reflect the differences of the social distribution of income. The authority needs to pay more attention on income redistribution policy to reduce the gap of income level and relative deprivation. By doing this, Taiwan’s Total Fertility Rate may be also improved.

並列關鍵字

Birth ； relative deprivation ； two-part model

參考文獻

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