喜獲籤王？初探我國選舉中的排序效應：以2002縣市議員選舉為例

Does the Position Effect Exist in Taiwan? The Case of the 2002 Local Council Election

王宏恩(Austin Horng-En Wang)

《政治科學論叢》 62期 (2014/12) Pp. 195-220

https://doi.org/10.6166/TJPS.62(195-220)

摘要

我國選舉中候選人總希望抽到較前面的號次，1號更被稱為籤王，被候選人、中選會選務人員及媒體相信可幫助選戰宣傳、提高候選人得票率，但我國相關實證研究付之闕如。選票上的排序影響得票率，稱為排序效應（position effect），在許多國家或地區，法院判決需透過排序輪轉制或隨機分派制等方式來降低潛在的選舉不公，故測量排序效應不只是對選舉風氣的實證，更具政策意涵。本文使用歷年參選人最多的2002年縣市議員選舉進行觀察，以不同參候選人數選區分群，中選會於選前號次抽籤形成自然實驗（Natural Experiment）。本文將排序效應分成籤王優勢、籤尾劣勢及排序優勢三種次類型，透過Beta Regression控制共變數並估計之。結果顯示此次選舉並不存在明顯的排序效應，無論全體樣本、或區分各政黨內，都不因選舉號次而有得票率上的差異。縣市議員選舉排序效應不顯著的原因，可能來自單張選票不欲浪費、選票上資訊足夠協助決定投票意向、政黨配票等，待未來進一步之實證研究。

關鍵字

排序效應 ； 縣市議員選舉 ； 選舉制度 ； 自然實驗法

並列摘要

In Taiwan, the candidate's position on the ballot is decided by in a public draw before campaign period. Candidates, election officials and even news media, believe that a higher place on the ballot is an advantage which can translate into a greater vote share. This belief is called the ＂position effect＂ in electoral studies, in which the order of candidate on the ballot may influence vote share. This potential threat to electoral integrity has led to courts in some countries to require reforms to ballot design such as position randomization and order rotation. Therefore, this study on the ballot position effect in Taiwan not only falsifies this wide-spread belief, but also has policy implications. This article classifies three forms of position effect: the ＂top position advantage,＂ the ＂last position disadvantage,＂ and ＂order effect.＂ These three hypotheses are falsified through the 2002 local council election, which was conducted using a single non-transferable vote (SNTV) system. Beta regression reveals that position effect does not exist in analysis of the full sample nor within candidates of same party. Explanations for its non-existence include the SNTV system, the voluntary voting rule, adequate information provided on the ballot, party identification, and vote equalization.

並列關鍵字

Position Effect ； Local Council Election ； Electoral Rule ； Natural Experiment

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一般報導，1994，〈里長候選人抽籤 吉祥話滿天飛〉，《聯合報》，6/8，14。

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