應用灰色馬可夫鏈預測7－ELEVEn營收

7－ELEVEn在台灣是一家上市的便利超商連鎖店，其營收的預測對企業經營者或投資者的決策依據甚為重要，也是經營管理者的主要任務之一。本研究應用灰色馬可夫鏈模式進行7－ELEVEn營收之預測，因為灰色馬可夫模式，結合灰色預測GM（1，1）模式和馬可夫鏈模型的優點，能充分利用歷史資料所提供的訊息，對隨機波動性較大的數據進行預測。本研究結果顯示以灰色馬可夫鏈模式進行預測，訓練組之平均精確度高達98.49%，高於以灰色預測模式進行預測之平均精確度為97.48%；且測試組預測之平均精確度為90.12%，兩者的精確度都高達九成以上，預測能力皆有一定之水準。

關鍵字

灰色馬可夫鏈；馬可夫鏈模式； GM（1，1）模式

並列摘要

7-ELEVEn is one of the convenience chain stores in Taiwan. It is important to predict the sales revenue for the managers and investors to make decision. It is also the manager's task predict the sales revenue of enterprise. The grey Markov model characterized by GM(1,1) model of grey prediction and Markov model was applicable to the previous data to predict the value by random and fluctuant data. Its precision was comparatively accurate than GM(1,1) model or Markov model. The data of grey Markov was based on the predicted value would be more reliable. The results showed that the precision was 98.49% by grey Markov model and the precision was 97.48% by GM(1,1) model. It demonstrated that the precision of grey Markov was higher than GM(1,1) model.